They came, they saw, they choked

This matchup is so beautiful, it makes me think football is fixed.

(Back for another round is guest-Jew "Gaba-gooz," who was practically on point with his preview of last week's Pats-Bolts game. This time around it's the preview of the AFC title game)

For the second time in four years, the Indianapolis Colts will square off against the New England Patriots for the AFC crown (Pats won 24-14 in 2003). Last week the Colts and Pats upset the Ravens and Chargers, respectively, and anyone who’s not a Ravens or Chargers fan should be loving this. Even some Jets fans might enjoy this game. It’s really amazing how the playoffs create such voids in head coaches' brains, especially Marty Schottenheimer. I’m not happy to be a Giants fan right now, but I’m really happy not to be a Chargers fan right now. So please excuse this brief rant; it needs to be done.

Marty, my man, why the hell did your offensive coaches run more passing plays than running plays? Are they insane? Is Bill Belichick really in your head that much? Did he take your green notebook with all of your plays in it? Here we go, there’s 4:30 left in the game, and the score is tied 21-21. The game is the hands of your offensive staff, and you have the best player in football on your team. It’s 1st and 10, and Tomlinson runs for five yards. LIKE HE DID ALL GAME. Now it’s 2nd and 5, and Rivers throws? Incomplete pass to Vincent Jackson, now it’s 3rd and 5. Let’s throw again Phil! This time it’s an incomplete pass to Eric Parker, who had already dropped a few passes and muffed a punt. This forced a punt, and put the game in the hands of possibly the most clutch football player alive. Seriously, I think there is something very wrong with you. And in your defense all you can say is, "I don't call the plays." Well guess what, any coach with half a brain would step up and make sure that Tomlinson had the ball in that situation. I don't care if you've "entrusted" the play-calling to someone else, put a head-set on! Your wide receivers were playing like “Hot Hands” from Little Giants all game. Rivers was better off throwing toilet paper! Did you not realize that all of your touchdowns were on the ground? I can understand throwing on 3rd and 5, but shouldn’t the play be designed for your only sure-handed receiver, Antonio Gates? Or maybe a pass to Tomlinson, who had the game-high for San Diego in receiving yards because he’s God? You are a joke Marty. I’d rather have Tom Coughlin than you. Okay I didn’t mean that…I’m sorry. But seriously, I’d rather have Rick Moranis than you.


Anyway, I found this stat very interesting: B-more and San Diego were a combined 15-1 at home this year, and they both lost. Unbelievable. In case Pittsburgh didn't prove it last year, now everyone knows that although homefield advantage helps (NFL ranks #1 in professional sports in terms of the importance of homefield advantage), it isn't everything: You still need to play well to win. So now Peyton Manning, our generation’s Dan Marino, is fighting for his first Super Bowl appearance, while Tom Brady, our generation’s Joe Montana, is trying to win his fourth Super Bowl in six years. The Colts are 0-2 against the Pats in the playoffs since 2003 (also lost 20-3 in the Divisionals in 2004), mainly because Manning has been unable to adapt to Bill Belichick’s defensive schemes, mixed with a few plays that simply didn't go the Colts' way. However the last time the two teams faced was Week 9 this season, and the Colts won 27-20 in New England. They also played in 2005 in Week 9, and Indy won in New England 40-21. With that said let's see the in-game matchups...

Dungy vs. Belichick...Belichick vs. Dungy...another chess match in the playoffs. Their past two playoff chess matches have been like Bobby Fisher vs. Helen Keller. Basically, there is no way Dungy will ever come close to being compared to Belichick. But, and if I may reference Little Giants again, all it takes is “One Time.” That’s all you need Tony. Nobody will care about the past if you can take this one down. Everyone will forget about your Marty-esque games. And not only are the Colts playing in the RCA Dome, there’s something different about this Colts team: No one expected them to get this far. Over the past few years, the Colts have been the enormous favorite, and they always choked. Going into the playoffs this year, I didn’t hear too many people saying, “Indy’s definitely going to win the Super Bowl. This is Peyton’s year.” Pretty much everyone had the Chargers vs. Ravens in the AFC Championship, so now everyone is surprised to see Indy in it as opposed to expecting them to be in it.

Tom Brady vs. Indy’s D: Tom Brady better have taken his O-line out for a lobster dinner, because they did an impeccable job against San Diego’s awesome defense. Seriously…Bravo. The defense sacked Brady only twice (led the league in the regular season with 61), and if I recall correctly, Shawne Merriman only did his “epilepsy dance” once. And if Brady’s O-line got a lobster dinner, then Troy Brown better have gotten to sleep with Brady’s wife, because he saved the game. (I’m too lazy to check if Brady’s married or not. If he isn’t, then Troy Brown gets to sleep with her whenever he does.) When Brady threw that interception to Marlon McCree, down by 8 with six and a half minutes left in the fourth quarter, the game was most likely over. But Troy Brown stripping that ball and Reche Caldwell recovering it saved the season, along with avoiding media comments such as, “Brady isn’t as clutch as he used to be.” [Sports Jew note, Brady is single, but recently broke up with actress Bridget Moynahan]

Blocking up front will once again be essential for the Pats to win this game. Indy’s free safety Bob Sanders is one of the best players on the field and they need to contain him. Defensive end Dwight Freeney’s first step is quicker than anybody’s, and Belichick knows that if he starts getting pressure on Brady consistently, it’s going to be a long day. All of a sudden, Indy’s run defense has been unflappable, but Belichick is too good of a coach for that to happen to the Pats. Last week, the passing game was the most important aspect of the offensive gameplan. (21 rushes, 51 passes) This week, the running game will be the main focus for New England. Indy’s front seven is more speed than strength, so expect Corey Dillon to get more redzone carries (Week 9 vs. Indy Dillon had 2 TD’s, a one-yarder and a four-yarder). Maroney is obviously faster than Dillon, averaging 4.8 yards per carry on 13 carries during their last meeting, and is certainly no weakling at 5’11, 220 lbs. I love how Kevin Faulk gets incorporated into the offense, and Belichick will continue to use him in key situations. New England wideouts Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney stepped it up last game, and that’s a big reason why the Pats were able to come out with a victory. In this game Brady will still need them, but expect more passes to be thrown to the tight ends. Dungy will be anticipating the deep ball, so I doubt there will be too many shots down field. The short passes will be prevalent, and they are necessary for Brady to move the ball if the running game stalls. Brady made the plays last week when he absolutely needed to, but overall did not play a good game. He is known for his uncanny ability to rebound from bad games; so forget throwing three interceptions, he may not even throw one.

Key matchup - Peyton Manning vs. New England’s D: Peyton Manning…here we go again. There has never been more pressure on Peyton Manning in his entire life. He is now 5-6 career in the playoffs, and he knows if he plays the way he did the last two weeks, he'll be 5-7. He managed the game well last week in Baltimore, but he's going to need a little more than that to win this game. He needs to get in the end zone, but everybody knows that. He needs to read the defense better and not make any "Playoff Peyton Passes," but everybody knows that. He needs to get the ball in Reggie Wayne's hands, and not everybody knows that. Marvin Harrison will probably have a good game, because he’s Marvin. However cornerback Asante Samuel is playing the best football of his life, and he’s not leaving Marvin’s side for one second. That is why, REGGIE WAYNE IS THE MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER IN THIS FOOTBALL GAME. If Reggie Wayne has a big game, the Colts will win this game. Tight end Dallas Clark has stepped up big time as of late, and he is definitely an offensive threat, as well as an excellent decoy. Clark will have an okay game, but nothing extraordinary. Look how well the Pats’ D guarded Antonio Gates last week: 6 catches for 61 yards, and Clark isn’t a freak of nature like Gates, and Rodney Harrison is playing this week (at way less than 100%). How are the Patriots going to stop Reggie Wayne? Ellis Hobbs? Artrell Hawkins? Their zone defense needs to be near perfect because Wayne is going to be a handful, and Peyton is no stranger to Belichick's defensive disguises. Reggie Wayne would be the No. 1 receiver on any other team in the league except for Cincinnati and St. Louis…remember that. [Sports Jew note, how about Carolina? Are we forgetting Steve Smith Gaba-gooz? Oh, how quickly we forget]

Back to Peyton Manning; it’s really mind boggling how someone this good could be this average in the playoffs every year. (This year, 101.0 rating in the regular season, 58.3 in the playoffs.) It’s like he turns into Jell-O every time the postseason rolls around. He's bound to have one good game...right? So as always, Peyton will come out firing, putting the pressure on the defense early. The Pats definitely don’t want a shootout in the RCA Dome, so like all teams their goal is to rush the pocket, forcing him to make tough passes on the run. If that happens, Joseph Addai will need to get going early. The Colts will have a pass-first game plan, but if Addai can take one of their legs out early and Peyton starts playing like his regular season self, the Colts are almost impossible to beat. Remember the Pats are the type of team that hang around all game, then crush you in the fourth quarter. If Peyton can get himself a 14-point cushion in the first half, there will be problems for the Pats.

Special teams: Don’t forget Adam Vinatieri is on the Colts; not only has he never missed a kick in the RCA Dome in his career, he just came off the game of his life (five field goals in Baltimore). He could be a big factor in this game, as he has a knack for big time kicks. Pats rookie kicker Stephen Gostowski has been lights-out in the playoffs, and he has a lot to prove. In spite of this, I don't think kicking will make or break the outcome of this game. [Sports jew note, I totally agree. Everyone is making such a big emphasis on kicking, when game-ending field goals are really a matter of chance]

X factor: Tom Brady is a winner, period. He doesn't just own Peyton Manning, he owns everybody in the league. And no matter what happens Sunday, Brady will always be a winner. Him and Peyton have quite a history, but I don't think Brady cares who he plays...he just wants to win. Peyton on the other hand HATES Brady. I don't care what people say, he has to hate him, and there's nothing he wants more than to run the Patriots into the ground on the way to a championship. Peyton has been blessed with what may be his last chance to crush Brady in the playoffs, and he knows it. He has been looking forward to this moment for years, and now the moment has come. So here it is: Peyton Manning is going to run amuck on New England's defense and Brady will be watching the Super Bowl in his mansion. The dynasty is over, but don't worry Brady: "You still got the best arm in the neighborhood."

Prediction: Indianapolis 38 New England 17