The Florida Marlins:
Are the Marlins on the rebuilding road to a third World Series ring?
The Florida Marlins are quite the anomaly of Major League Baseball. While like the Athletics, they employ the policy of parting with their top producing players, the team has still managed to win two World Series titles in its 15 years of existence. That’s something Moneyball has yet to accomplish. The team gutted its roster after both titles, most recently following the 2003 championship, and is now coming off a three year record decline. This winter the trend of saying goodbye to All-Stars continued, when the fish traded 3B Miguel Cabrera and SP Dontrelle Willis to the Tigers, for a prospect package headlined by OF Cameron Maybin and SP Andrew Miller. To their credit, Marlins management always seems to get the best return value when trading away their top players. Don’t forget, this is the team that netted Hanley Ramirez in the Beckett/Lowell deal. Maybin and Miller will not immediately compensate for the loss of Willis and Cabrera, and potentially, never will. But it’s not like Willis’s 5+ ERA was helping the team last year anyway. While perception would suggest that the team lost its best player again in Cabrera, it’s safe to say that Ramirez has been just as dominant offensively in his first two seasons, and just as detrimental defensively. The team is now left with the question of where their best player will go in the lineup, since he is clearly their best run scorer and, potentially, run producer. Other than that, the rotation was lacking with Willis, and didn’t really address that this off-season other than adding Miller. Unless you consider Mark Hendrickson, a starter/reliever hybrid, a hot pickup. The team is not well-rounded enough to compete in a division with two teams filled with diverse talent in the Mets and Phillies. Still, the Marlins have proven twice that they know how to rebuild, and by picking up a top offensive and defensive prospect, there are a lot of other teams to point fingers at before you bash the 2008 Florida Marlins.
The Bats: Young. With the exception of guys like Lowell and Delgado, the Marlins usually employ a very young lineup, including the departed Cabrera, who is still just 24. The team’s oldest starting player is projected to be Josh Willingham, who is 29. A young lineup won’t hurt you necessarily – the Diamondbacks somehow made it work – but in the case of the Marlins, it leaves a lot of questions for a team that simply can’t fall back on its starting pitching. Ramirez is a rare player who can hit for average, power and speed, and while I don’t foresee a huge production drop-off, I do worry about his ability to lead a team into success considering his shaky persona on defense. He definitely isn’t hurting the team, which his 244 runs over the past two years can attribute to. After him, Dan Uggla provides more power, but took a nosedive in average last year, batting .245. I suppose this year will tell if Uggla is that type of hitter, or the guy who batted .282 in his rookie year. I hear a lot of hype surrounding Jeremy Hermedia in fantasy circles, but he has yet to breakthrough, and there is uncertainty on where he will hit. Josh Willingham is a nice player, who improved in RBI and runs last year, and will be asked to do the same this season. Outside of those guys, the Marlins lineup is weak and unproven. Mike Jacobs can hit for power, but wasn’t seen much on the base pads last year with his .317 OBP. Maybin is an elite prospect, but it is uncertain how ready he is, considering a lot of scouts still think he needs more seasoning in the minors.
The Rotation: Unstable. When you consider number one starters for every team in the league, Scott Olsen is as volatile as they come. He is coming off a horrendous year in which he lost 15 games, had an ERA of 5.81 with a WHIP of 1.76, and even got arrested for DUI, resisting arrest and assaulting an officer. This will make Miller’s job in emerging as the team’s ace all the more easy. The Tigers top pitching prospect has not impressed in his two years in the majors, especially last year when he struggled in 13 major league starts – his 5.63 ERA and 1.75 WHIP was just as bad as Olsen. He does have a dominant fastball, and clean slate in Florida, where he will be inserted into the rotation albeit a truly horrible spring. After them, Sergio Mitre is a groundball pitcher who was stable during the first half of last season, but went on to get injured and produce inflated, uninspiring numbers (4.65 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and just 80 Ks). Hendrickson was a serviceable guy in the pen last year for the Dodgers, but struggled in the rotation, with an ERA over six. The problem is the Marlins are fairly set at bullpen this year, but very needy for starters. Rich VanderHurk will probably lock the fifth spot due his impressive K rate, but had an ERA bordering on seven last season. This team is literally jammed with swelling ERAs and it would literally take a pitching miracle to expect all or enough of them to get those averages down this season. When it comes to rotations, the Marlins probably have the worst staff in all of baseball.
Fantasy Favorite: Hanley Ramirez. I can’t really get too creative with this team, so I might as well state why I still think Hanram is the number two choice in drafts this season. I will start by saying that the young shortstop’s emergence last year shouldn’t have come as such a big surprise. This is a guy who hit .292, with a .353 OBP and .480 slugging percentage in his 2006 rookie of the year campaign. He also belted 17 homers, scored 119 runs and drove in 59, without a set spot in the lineup. His speed is nothing less than elite, swiping 51 bases in each of his first two years. Last year, of course, Ramirez raised every single stat possible except triples, and a lot of people are weary of his chance to repeat that. The truth is Ramirez will not have to repeat that line this year to validate a number two selection. The number with the most potential drop-off is average, but Hanley will still be able to solidify the category by batting around .310, when you consider that Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are borderline .300 hitters. There is really no reason to expect Hanley to dip lower than 20 homers, only that he may over attempt to top last year’s 29. The main concern is where he will hit in the lineup, and what it can potentially do to his steals total. For this reason, fantasy owners high on Ramirez should pray he stays in the lead-off spot where he is an utter lock for 50 bags. It will also salvage his run total, which will go down with the loss of Cabrera, but not drastically. Ramirez is simply too versatile to pass on this stage in his career, and should continue to put up monster numbers even in a weaker lineup.
Outlook: One man show. Ramirez is a reason to be a Marlins fan, because he is simply one of the league’s most talented hitters. His defensive inability is probably more damaging to the team than most people think, so an improvement in that area is crucial. The problem is even if Ramirez was the complete player fans hope he can be, baseball is not an individual sport and the Marlins are clearly lacking other capable individuals. The pitching outlook is very gloomy, considering that Olsen is so unstable on and off the field. Miller will have the luxury of playing with less pressure than in Detroit, but his poor exposure to the big leagues is not inspiring. The Marlins are at a crossroads as a franchise, finally getting the greenlight for a new stadium to be built last month, and an extension to stay in Miami until 2046. The team will also change its name to the Miami Marlins, which certainly sounds more marketable. Still, the team needs to look no further than Pittsburgh to see that a new stadium does not equal success. For now, they are a very lopsided team that will have problems competing in the National League’s best division.
