(From time to time, I will allow a certain distinguished amount of "guest Jews" to contribute to the blog, with their own scribblings on sports. For my first "guest" spot, my good friend Gabel (I like to call him Gaba-gooz) has written an in-depth piece on this weekend's biggest matchup, Pats vs Bolts. It is really good I must say, chocked-full with football analysis (which I love) and of course, one totally irrelevent Dumb and Dumber reference. Enjoy!)
I would have loved to write about my New York Giants, but unfortunately they have the discipline of a kindergarten class. What's even worse is Tom Coughlin is coming back next year. What's even worse than that is the fact that I have to admit Jeff Garcia owns us. He's officially reached my top 5 athletes I hate the most. It would have been better to be a Jets fan this year, and very rarely do I say it's better to be a Jets fan. I'm not big on the Jets, however they deserve a lot of credit for playing the way they did in the regular season, and it would have been nice to see them advance to the Divisionals. So due to the early departed in the Empire State, I decided to write about the most exciting game this weekend: The New England Patriots vs. The San Diego Chargers.
The Chargers, clearly the best team in football this year, are loaded on both sides of the ball, with Zeus (LaDainian Tomlinson) at running back, Juggernaut (Lorenzo Neal) blocking for him at fullback, QB Phillip Rivers coming off a Pro Bowl year (I can't think of a good name for him), just a freak in Antonio Gates at tight end, and a top-notch linebacking core led by Colossus (Shawne Merriman), who led the NFL in sacks (17) despite missing four games. At the same time, the Pats seem to have a solid D no matter who gets injured, an offense of mostly no-names that play well as a team, and they have Superman (Tom Brady) at QB and Professor X (Bill Belichick) head coaching. And in case you haven't been watching football for the last six years, it's not too smart to bet against the Patriots in the playoffs. The Pats have an incredible amount of momentum, winning seven out of their last eight after they out-played the Jets, and Bill Belichick out-coached Eric “I still have baby fat in my 30’s” Mangini. Doesn’t Mangini look like one of those kids who went to college when they were 12? Anyway, last week the Pats’ defense came up with big plays when they needed to, and if Brady repeats his performance it’s near impossible for the Pats to lose. However with home field advantage, fresh off a bye week, LaDainian Tomlinson and a 10-game winning streak (undefeated at home this year), the Chargers are the clear favorite. And the last time the teams faced was in 2005, when San Diego went to New England and destroyed them 41-17, ending the Pats' 21-game home winning streak. But if you look at how the teams match up in 2006, considering it’s a playoff game, an upset is quite a possibility. But would it really be an upset?
First you have the head coaches: One who is famous for winning the big game and one who is infamous for losing the big game. Belichick has probably spent more hours watching Chargers game film than Bill Simmons has watching Rocky movies. You better believe the ingenious head coach has come up with tons of schemes to stop the run, and he has a disciplined defense that can execute (sixth in the NFL in total defense). No one can stop Tomlinson, but the defense just needs to prevent a monster day. There is more pressure on Marty Schottenheimer than ever, because this is his last chance to redeem himself and show everyone he's not a goat. (When I associate Marty with redeeming himself, I can’t help thinking of the “Dumb and Dumber” scene when Harry [Jeff Daniels] and Lloyd [Jim Carrey] get lost and Lloyd mysteriously gets that motorcycle: “Just when I thought you couldn’t get any dumber, you go and do something like this….AND TOTALLY REDEEM YOURSELF!”) Both head coaches have a myriad of playoff experience, but their success is so lopsided it’s laughable. (Belichick 11-2, Schottenheimer 5-12) Just ask yourself this: If either team’s game plan is disrupted, which coach is more likely able to adjust?
Brady vs. San Diego’s D: The second-most important match-up of this game. The Chargers’ front seven is among the best in the league, with a superb combination of speed and power. Not since the real LT have we seen a linebacker in Shawn Merriman that can sack a quarterback at will. Brady’s dinky six-yard and screen passes aren’t going to work as well against these speedy linebackers, so expect him to use more of the field. The secondary led by Quentin Jammer are excellent tacklers as well, so the deep ball will be the biggest difference maker for Brady. If the Patriots are to put up points, wideouts Reche Caldwell (very underrated), Jabar Gaffney and tight end Ben Watson need to step up. You would also be naïve to think Belichick doesn’t have a few offensive tricks up his sleeve. However if Brady doesn’t execute early and the crowd starts to get louder, the game could turn into a blowout fast.
In every game all you hear is, “In order to win they have to establish the run.” This is not true for this game, because there won't be much of a running game for New England. San Diego's rush defense was 7th in the league this year. Corey Dillon can’t even outrun Gilbert Brown, and even with a few holes provided by the O-line, he will be lucky if he can get five yards on one of his 8-10 carries. Dillon’s game is based on his power, which is inferior to the Chargers’ front seven. Lawrence Maroney always has potential for a big game, but with the linebackers’ speed, he won’t rush for any more than 70-80 yards. Running back Kevin Faulk played very well last week and can execute screens well, but again can't compete with San Diego's front seven. Because of this, all the pressure will be on the passing game. In order for the Pats to win, the O-line must contain the linebackers. Dillon, Maroney and Faulk have to stick their blocks; if Brady can get enough time to throw, putting him in a rhythm, he will be tough to contain. Like I said, all the pressure is on Tom Brady. But who else would you want the pressure to be on? The problem is, the Pats won’t score 37 points again and 21 points may not cut it in San Diego.
The most important match-up: Phillip Rivers vs. New England’s D: As previously mentioned, Belichick will come up with defensive schemes for Zeus (if you don’t get the nickname, it’s because Zeus is the king of all gods who throws lightning bolts. Chargers…lighting bolts…get it? Whatever it beats LT), however as clever as Belichick is, it’s hard to stop the eventual best running back of all time. At the same time LDT is human; don’t forget in their first six games this season Tomlinson rushed for 100 yards only once, and the Chargers lost two of those games. That is why Rivers needs to be big. More focus may be on Tomlinson, but Phillip Rivers is the single most important person in this football game. The D-line needs to get pressure on Rivers early because if he gets rattled, it will be tough to come back. Rivers has come off a stellar year, with statistics showing that he gets better towards the end of the game (116.6 QB rating in the 4th quarter). But that doesn't matter anymore; regular season stats don't mean anything once the playoffs roll around. The best of the best in the regular season often collapse, and those you would never expect to shine. If Rivers gets in his own head, Antonio Gates will ultimately be ineffective, who is vital for Rivers' passing game, especially with Rodney Harrison out. The Chargers’ wide receivers are above average, but the Pats’ secondary jump routes very well, and are even better at disguising it. Did you see Asante Samuel’s interception on Pennington last week? Brilliant defense. The Pats' linebackers are deceptive, so expect them to confuse Rivers a little bit. That’s where the offensive coaches are very important. THEY NEED TO KEEP RIVERS CALM. If he makes a mistake, he can’t get down on himself. The Pats’ D is ferocious. If they smell a weakness, they will exploit it all day until you can fix it. And in the playoffs, that's not easy to do, unless of course you're Frank Reich, or Jeff Garcia (God I hate him).
Rivers has to manage the game. That’s the most important quality in a quarterback. With the talent on his team he doesn’t need to play like an all-star. Look at Trent Dilfer in 2000, Brad Johnson in 2002, Rothlesberger last year…why did they win the Super Bowl? Yes their defenses were almost flawless, but besides that, they all did a masterful job at simply managing the game, keeping they’re composure. No turnovers. Another reason why Rivers vs. New England’s D is a more important matchup is because of his playoff experience. This is Rivers' first playoff start, so throw his QB rating out the window. Everyone knows what Brady is going to do, everyone knows what Tomlinson is going to do, but no one knows what Rivers is going to do. The Chargers must jump out early, because once the fourth quarter rolls around, do you really want to give Brady a chance to win the game?
In attempting to predict which team will win, I ask myself one question: Which team is more likely to play mistake-free football? There is nothing more valuable than experience, and New England has a great deal of it. This Chargers team might be amazing, but it’s extremely difficult to play like a 14-2 team in the playoffs. Only twice in each of the two conferences have the No. 1 seeds won the Super Bowl in the past 10 years.
What will ultimately decide the outcome of this game? Turnovers. Whoever turns the ball over more will lose. Both teams will thrive on good field position, especially San Diego. The Pats can ill-afford a turnover putting San Diego at their 30 yard line. Both teams have solid kickers, but if San Diego gets in the red zone…it’s probably a touchdown. All Rivers has to do is throw it up to Gates, or hand it off to Zeus. But when looking at Rivers' stats, I found it very interesting that out of his 22 touchdown passes, zero were over the middle. Belichick knows this I'm sure, and in a redzone situation the defense may force Rivers to throw there. The Chargers have an awesome defense but if you give Brady a short field in a must-score situation, odds are he’ll pick you apart. In the battle of on-field talent the Chargers dominate, but because of Belichick, you cannot count the Pats out…he has a knack for bringing out the best in his team, obviously. Oh yeah one more thing, in case you didn’t know, Tom Brady has thrown five interceptions in 367 pass attempts in the playoffs.
Prediction: Tomlinson will have a solid game, but Rivers will not play up to par. Special teams should not be overlooked in any football game, and as I said before, field position very important. Also be mindful of the fact that Brady and Bill are 11-1 in the playoffs together, and although Brady doesn't have anything to prove, Rivers got voted into the Pro Bowl over him.
Final Score: New England 27 San Diego 24
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