THE SPORTS JEW'S 2008 MLB PREVIEW

The Oakland Athletics:

Is Moneyball officially dead?

For ten years in Oakland, General Manager Billy Bean defied the rules of running a baseball team. Instead of going after big-time free agents, with sexy power numbers or five-tool athleticism, Beane sought out cheap players who rank highly in one key stat — OPS. His strategy, dubbed Moneyball, was to accumulate a roster of players who got on base at a high clip, in the general theory that the more guys who got on base, the more guys who could come home and score. He even attributed his philosophy to pitching, going after lesser-known arms with solid strikeout-to-walk ratios. The question is — did Moneyball work? If anything, the A's have been a regular season standard this decade, making the playoffs five times. The team, however, never made it to the World Series, and only once advanced to the ALCS in 2006. Also, the team has parted with all of its marquee players along the way, a key component of Moneyball's frugal foundation. Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, Johny Damon, Jermaine Dye, and the pitching trio of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito were never even considered during their departing off-seasons. Last year, the Moneyball bubble finally burst, as the A's struggled all year long and finished with a losing record for the first time since 1998. Did the scare do anything to make Beane rethink his modest approach to success? Not quite. He dealt away his best hitter, Nick Swisher, and best pitcher, Dan Haren, to completely gut what is now a very weak team on paper. The 2008 Athletics aren't only a team of faceless players; they're a team of injury-prone, young, un-proven, and in some cases, declining faceless players. An off-season fire sale has led to the acquisition of several new prospects to replenish the A's farm system, but very few returns that can have an impact this season. While he has shocked his nonbelievers before, it will be surprising to see if Beane's winning strategy will continue to thrive in a growingly competitive American League West.

The Bats: In disarray. Swisher was growing into a prime Moneyballer (100 BB last season), which makes his trade to the White Sox puzzling in my view. With him out of the picture, there's a big question mark facing the A's, more than any other team this spring, of who's going to produce in a lineup filled with position battles, platoon situations, and yes, injury woes. Last season, two guys, Jack Cust and Dan Johnson, emerged out of nowhere to go on power surges, becoming add-drop fantasy fodder in the process. Neither of them is relatively young (29 and 28), has any speed or defensive capability. Cust, however, had a .912 OPS last year, the highest on the team, making him the ideal Moneyballer of the 2008 A's. He'll probably split DH duties with Johnson, while also seeing some time in the outfield. RF Travis Buck is an up-and-comer who didn't impress me last season, but hey, an .850 OPS aint too shabby in Oaktown...I guess. 3B Eric Chavez is the perfect example of a guy who would have been playing for another team already, if he didn't decline before maxing out his Moneyball potential. If he can somehow return to the form that won him a Silver Slugger award in 2002, then the A's potentially have a face to their franchise restored. On the other side of the diamond, the A's do have a promising young 1B in Daric Barton, who hit .347 in 18 games last year. Past those guys — and 2B Mark Ellis, who belted 19 homers last season — the rest of this squad leaves you head scratching. They have OF prospects that aren't quite ready, an underachieving SS in Bobby Crosby, and a C receiving way too much credit — I don't care how cool his name sounds — in Kurt Suzuki. In an interesting note, Beane did sign former Royals slugger Mike Sweeney this off-season, who hasn't seen 500 at bats since 2001, and probably won’t this season either. So, why was he signed exactly? I wonder if his career .861 OPS had anything to do with it...

The Rotation: Crippled. Once renowned for its starting pitching, the A’s survived the departure of “The Big Three,” namely due to the emergence of Dan Haren as a legitimate ace. Well, they parted ways with him this winter, and are now without a legitimate number one for 2008. Their best starter, talent wise, is clearly Rich Harden, who has shown spurts of dominance over the past years – spurts being the key word there. Harden is probably one of the biggest injury liabilities in the whole league, having never pitched 200 innings in any of his five years. He has really broken down in the past two seasons, pitching 46 innings in 06, followed by just 25 last year. If he could just get healthy, Harden has the stuff to become as good as Harden or better. This is a huge if, however, considering how fragile he’s been. After that, Joe Blanton was treated like trade bait all winter, problem was, nobody bit. He is a very serviceable starter, who unlike Harden, logged a grueling 230 innings last season. He just doesn’t have the power or pitch placement of a top rotation guy, which is where the A’s have him pegged right now, due in large part to his durability. Chad Gaudin, a reliever-turned-starter last season, started hot, but swelled up to an uninspiring 4.42 ERA and 1.53 WHIP on the year. He is also coming off hip surgery and is shaky at best for his season debut. Like Blanton, though, he was also in the AL top ten for innings pitched, hurling 199.1 innings. The A’s will try converting another reliever this season with Justin Duchscherer, who likes to strike people out with a fairly dominating curveball. Duchscherer, however, is also coming off - you guessed it – hip surgery. So basically, three of the top four starters in Oakland are injury risks, and the other one is Joe Blanton. Either Lenny DiNardo or youngster Dana Eveland should fill out the fifth spot, if that does anything for you.

Fantasy Favorite: Huston Street. Moneyball and fantasy go together like oil and water, or lamb and tuna fish, if you must. Beane constantly deals away his best players, and is not impressed with the stats that will help you win your league, especially homers and steals. Never, will Beane’s adherence to fantasy stats be proven greater than this year. The 2008 Oakland Athletics team is a barren wasteland of fantasy studs. On ESPN’s average draft position (ADP) rankings, the highest A’s player is taken in the 12th round. The 12th! He is, of course, closer Huston Street. Now while he is not without flaw – shockingly, this A also had an injury last season – Street is still a top ten closer while healthy. He is reported to be fully ready for this season, and is not coming off surgery like the team’s other hobbled pitchers. His 2.58 ERA over three years doesn’t blow you away, but it is coupled with a very low WHIP - .94 last season. He also averages a K per inning, and if given the right opportunity, would be as close to a lock for 40 saves. That right opportunity could still come if the A’s decide to trade Street to a better team in need of a top closer. If he stays in Oakland, he will still have a strong year, but we’ll have saves ceiling of no higher than 35. The only way Street’s value can really get hurt is if A’s deal him to a team looking to use him as a setup man, which is always a possibility.

Outlook: Final straw. In closing, Moneyball is a lot like a guy with great pickup lines, who can never close. It will only get you as far as you could possibly go – in this case the first round of the playoffs – but never to the promise land – the World Series. If Beane’s goal as a GM is to consistently have his team succeed in the regular season, only to fall ultimately short of the grand prize, then he is seriously cheapening his fans. While making the playoffs is encouraging, you play to win it all, and the A’s of the 2000’s have proven to be a team incapable of doing so. With that said, it’s going to be an interesting development to see how much further the A’s organization goes with Beane and his sabermetrics style of general managing. He is crafty enough to get this team competitive in a few years, especially with all the prospects he’s racked up. It has to start getting frustrating for ownership, though, seeing all your best players being the automatic ones to go every off-season, and another losing season in 2008 may finally put an end to that. The problem is, the A’s may have finally run dry of best players to lose, in the sacred art which is – Moneyball.