Baltimore Orioles:
Can Markakis lead a rebuilding O’s squad?
The Baltimore Orioles enter 2008 following one of the busiest off-season's they've had in a while. This time, however, the O's were sellers instead of buyers. After coming to grips with the fact that they couldn't compete in the AL East, ownership decided to shed some salary and enter a rebuilding phase. Along with some major changes to field personnel, this will also be general manager Andy MacPhail and head manager Dave Trembley's first full season leading the team. The off-season started with the O's trading their highest paid player. SS Miguel Tejada, whose name has been attached to several trade rumors, was redeemed with a trade to Houston's homer friendly park, which could possibly resurrect his career. Meanwhile, SP Eric Bedard was working towards a contract extension, to lead Baltimore's young staff into the future. Unfortunately, a deal never came to fruition and Bedard was dealt to Seattle, where he will team up with King Felix Hernandez. On the bright side, Baltimore has to be delighted with what they received in return — a much more promising package than the one that landed Johan Santana in New York. The centerpiece of the deal, OF Adam Jones, has a five-tool arsenal and tremendous potential; even though he only hit .246 with two jacks in limited at bats last season. The O's should also benefit from George Sherrill's bullpen relief, which helped Seattle to the sound of a 2.37 ERA, .98 WHIP and 56 Ks in 47 innings last season. Similar numbers should help them cope better with the loss of closer Chris Ray, who had Tommy John surgery.
The Bats: Lacking. When I think of Baltimore's offense, I get this uncertain feeling in my stomach. Luke Scott (.255 avg., 18 HR, 64 RBI in 369 at bats last season) came over in the Tejada trade, and will look to raise his modest numbers with more playing time. 3B Melvin Mora has been on a steady decline since signing a $25 million, three-year contract after the 05 season, and I have the feeling the downward trend will continue this year. The obvious bright spots in this line up are OF Nick Markakis, who swiped a surprising 18 bases in 07 after recording only two the previous season, and 2B Brian Roberts. Markakis should continue his ascent, after batting .300 with 23 homers and 112 RBI last season. The problem here, just like in Kansas City and Pittsburgh, is the star player's supporting cast. If the Orioles want to hold on to Markakis come free agency time, they better show their franchise guy that they are working towards building a winner. Roberts, meanwhile, could find himself batting lead-off for one of the best lineups in baseball, as trade talks with the Cubbies just don't seem to go away. Regardless of his team, Roberts plays 2B and leads off, and does both very well. The role players in this lineup are mediocre at best, with the potential to do more. If this team loses Roberts, however, it will be hard to replace him in the batting order, leaving the O's with a very weak offense for this season.
The Rotation: Ace replacement. With Bedard gone, the Orioles will look towards Jeremy Guthrie to emerge as their new ace. Guthrie, who entered the O's rotation last May, had a stretch in which he allowed a run or none in six of nine games from May to June. If not for a rib injury late last season, I think Guthrie's numbers — 7-5 3.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP — could have looked a lot better. His low win total is a direct result of Baltimore's frustrating bullpen, which also prevented Bedard from having a 20 win, Cy Young caliber, season. If Guthrie can top 200 innings, get solid relief work, and a few lucky bounces on offense, 13-15 wins is a possibility. Looking at the next spot in the rotation, we find 23-year-old south paw Adam Loewen, who will be returning from season ending elbow surgery. Loewen, who stands 6"6, only pitched in six games late last year, but the O's seem to like his raw talent. This is in spite of his high walk total, 26, in just 30 innings last year. Despite that, look for him to break out this season, because for some reason, I got a feeling about this kid. Next in line is Daniel Cabrera, a perfect example of a reckless flamethrower. While he can rack up the Ks, his league-leading 18 losses last year, and proneness to leaving balls over the plate will continue to be his undoing. I have faith that the loss total will go down while the strikeouts will go up, but an ERA in the high fours seems inevitable. The tail-end of this rotation isn’t set, but Steve Trachsel was invited to camp, which always gets me real pumped. Look for Hayden Penn and Troy Patton to battle for who gets the call to fill out the rotation, and who gets a ticket back to Norfolk for more polishing.
Fantasy Favorite: Nick Markakis. "NIKO! NIKO! NIKO!" I was actually at Markakis's home coming at Shea (Strong Island son!) two years ago, and man does he have some fans here. The Glen Cove native is my clear favorite for fantasy, and that is with all due respect to Roberts, his 2B eligibility, and his 50 steals. It's just hard to argue with a guy who goes from .291,16, 62, 2, to .300, 23, 112,18 in one season. Batting over .290 in his first two seasons illustrates Markakis's patience at the plate at the young age of 24. Add the unforeseen increase in steals, along with the jolt in RBI, and Markakis is looking a lot like Bernie Williams in his prime, minus the all-star supporting cast. Go ahead and add "the sky is the limit" to his baseball card.
Outlook: It depends. Realistically, this team can’t contend in the AL East, and management should know that after its off-season fire sale. The O’s may have even locked down last place, with Tampa looking to finally give up that claim. The truth is, Baltimore is a team looking at its future. The team is more interested in seeing its young birds blossom into a young core of hitters and pitchers. This season will be about Jones proving he was worth dealing Bedard, Guthrie maturing into the staff's ace, and of course, Markakis taking his game to a higher level, and eventually becoming the face of the franchise. Still, when you take away Bedard and Tejada and replace them with an upcoming prospect and defacto ace, improving from a 69-93 season looks unlikely. I expect a similar record for the O's this year, but a step in the right direction nonetheless.
No comments:
Post a Comment