The San Francisco Giants:
Are the Bonds-less bats the worst lineup in baseball?
For the first time in 15 years, the San Francisco Giants will be opening the season without Barry Bonds. While most people outside of San Fran should view this as a good thing, for me, it was well overdue. His controversial image, and the negative media attention, turned San Francisco into a one-man-show, and made you forget that the Giants are in fact – a baseball team. Even though they’ve had a winning record in eight of the last ten seasons, GM Brian Sabean has been tying up team funds as of late, by overpaying for players like Bonds ($15.8M one-year contract), Barry Zito ($127M over seven) and, last winter, Aaron Rowand to a five-year deal worth $60M. Losing Bonds also means losing his drawing power, leaving the team with less money to spend. Sabean will have a harder time now building a well-balanced squad for the long haul. In addition to that, the Giants haven’t had a home grown player reach 400 at bats since Bill Mueller and Marvin Bernard both reached the plateau in 2000. With Bonds gone, no superstar to showcase and seven starters over age 30, the only reason to visit AT&T Park this season will be for the beautiful woman under the hot California sun.
The bats: Ghost town. A question mark after “bats” would have been the more appropriate route, but instead, lets see if I can find some bright spots. Considering Bonds only averaged 353 AB, 27 HR, and 59 RBI the last two seasons, replacing his production shouldn’t have been a difficult task for Sabean. His first option was swapping one of his young arms, most likely Tim Lincecum, to the Blue Jays for OF Alex Rios. That never transpired, and Seaban went and pulled the trigger on Rowand via free agency. Known more as a gutsy defensive specialist for the majority of his career, Rowand took advantage of the sandbox that is Citizens Park, a fierce Philadelphia lineup and a contract year, and translated his .309 BA, 27 HR, 89 RBI and 105 R last season into an annual salary of $12M for the next five seasons. Not bad for the 300th overall pick in the 1998 draft. The problem is Rowand has only topped 13 HR twice in his seven-year career. When you factor in his transition to a pitcher-friendly ball park, in a lineup no where nearly as stacked as the Phillies, this should surely make Sabean look foolish with his free agency pickups, two years and counting (see Zito). The only other guy worth mentioning isn’t even a lock to start, though he should be, and that’s Rajai Davis. His .282 BA and 17 SB in only 51 games, after a mid-season trade with the Pirates, is a strong enough case to plug him atop the order. Manager Bruce Bochy isn’t ready to make him his lead-off guy just yet, however, but did mention that for now, it’s Dave Roberts’ job to lose. Excuse me for not mentioning Randy Winn, Omar Vizquel, Rich Aurilia, and “clean-up” hitter Bengie Molina, but I hope you can forgive me.
The rotation: Promising. Thought I forgot about them, didn’t you? Not a chance. San Francisco will have a very weak offensive team, but make no mistake about their young rotation. Tim Lincecum, whose rookie campaign (7-5, 4.00 ERA, 150 K in 146 IP, .226 BA against) showed more in potential than results, is one of the most promising pitchers in baseball. While he only turns 24 this year, yet his maturity, nasty stuff and crazy delivery should easily make him one of the best pitchers in baseball before you know it. This does, however, prove how horrible the Zito deal was, since he isn’t even the best pitcher on this team. Zito’s first season in a Giants jersey produced sad numbers, to the tune of a losing 11-13 record, and a career worse 4.53 ERA. Now I never looked at Zito as an ace, but he is much better than his numbers last year showed. I expect him to get about 15 wins this year, with an ERA down to about 3.75, The strikeout total should remain low while the walks should remain high. Another promising young arm in the Giants rotation is Matt Cain. His ugly 7-16 record from last season was a fallacy, and sure didn’t match his modest ERA of 3.65. He did K 165 batters too, and some experts claim that Cain has the potential to be among the top strikeout artists this season. He is also an innings-eater, averaging 195 over his first two seasons. At the bottom of the rotation are Noah Lowery and former reliever Kevin Correria. I had a thing for Lowry after a strong rookie campaign in 05, but after an 87 to 87 K/BB in 07, I think I’m over him.
Fantasy Favorite: Tim Lincecum. This team is just terrible, which made it even easier for me to pick. Lincecum will prove that all the hype is for real this coming season. He pitches in probably the weakest offensive division, which should definitely make his sophomore year easier on him. He’ll also have Zito carrying the whole rotation’s pressure on his shoulders, as he tries to justify his contract after a terrible first of seven seasons. I predict 15 wins, an ERA in the low threes and over 180 strike outs this year for Lincecum. He will be this team’s ace of the future.
Outlook: Terrible. No offense at all. None! I know they say pitching wins games, but you still need to put one run up on the board, which this team will struggle to do several times. Lead by Rowand, who has played his whole career in hitter friendly parks, and a lineup stacked with aging mediocre players, I expect the Giants to be last in scoring runs this season. Their pitching might keep them in games, but I fear that this will eventually frustrate the young arms, something they will cope with better with experience. Last season the Giants were tied for the second worst record in the National League, and when you look at the lineup, this year should be worse. Their 71-91 record last year should be very similar this season, but I won’t be shocked if they reach the 100 loss plateau.
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