Western Conference Preview
Northwest Division-
Jerry Sloan of the Utah Jazz is quite the rarity in professional sports. He coached a perennial playoff team for years with Karl Malone and John Stockton, up until their inevitable departure. He was then left with two options – stay and rebuild an entirely new franchise, or call it a career in Utah or the league altogether. Most coaches choose option 2. Sloan, on the otherhand, stuck it out for a few years, and last season, had another division championship under his belt with the new era Jazz. It’s a true testament to his patience and desire for the game. How long he remains with the team is the question. The Jazz were ranked no. 2 for me in basketball intelligence last year, second only to the team that ousted them in the Western Conference Finals. They are led by Deron Williams, a pure point guard who should top 10 assists this season, and a 20-10 power forward horse in Carlos Boozer. Stockton and Malone reincarnated? Not quite, but this team is complimented by a versatile center in Mehmet Okur. Their final two starting spots are more intriguing. Shooting guard Ronnie Brewer will need to develop a consistent offensive game, even though he isn’t known for his shooting. And it should be a make-or-break year for Andre Kirilenko, whose once all-around game has faded over the past two seasons. Nonetheless, they should compete for the division again, and are in good shape for the future, with or without their prolific coach.
It was a frenzied year for the Denver Nuggets last season, after the brawl in New York beget the trade for Allen Iverson. Regardless if the two events are connected or not, the Nuggets never really jelled once Carmelo Anthony returned from injury and played alongside A.I. With a full training camp under their belt, the Nuggets will now have a fresh start to prove if the formula is successful. Both players are top ten scorers, but will need to focus on the other parts of their games to be winners, especially defensive pressure. There is loads of that down low as long as Marcus Camby stays healthy, which surprisingly has been the case for two years now. Along with him, Nene is also starting to play more consistently and with a mean streak. I forget that this team still has Kenyon Martin, and will leave it up to him to remind me. An interesting thing when looking at the Nuggets is what they'll get out of point guard. Chucky Atkins is a pass first guy with a few pretty good options, but his usefulness will depend on Iverson’s resilience to give up the lead. The Nuggets just need to figure out how to click, because they have every hole filled, or close to it. I worry a little bit about George Karl running the show. He has grown to lose his cool over the years, and has a potentially tumultuous team to further fuel his fire. A playoff berth is a lock, but I don’t know if the Nuggets have the mental composure to play against the conference elite.
Here’s where the division gets ugly. Let’s start with a team that had every reason to smile four months ago, but has since had only heartache and pain. The Portland Trail Blazers drafted Greg Oden with the first pick this June, and then immediately traded their best player in Zack Randolph to clear the new franchise’s runway. Several other draft day moves, tweaks and trades had the Blazers looking primed to make a small dent this season, followed by a huge impact in following years. With Oden now out for the year, the Blazers are worse than they were last season on paper, and to add insult to injury – or should I say, injury to injury – Brandon Roy is suffering from a painful bone spur in his heel. They aren’t going anywhere this year, and can only look forward to the fact they will collect another high lottery pick as a consolation prize, further strengthening the outlook of a team built for the future. Still, the Oden injury has to trouble Portland fans. I can’t remember too many all-time greats who started their careers by missing an entire rookie season to injury. (Please email me any names if you find out). One bright spot should be emerging power forward LaMarcus Aldridge, who showed promise towards the end of his rookie year. If he could have a breakout year in Oden’s absence, it could help alleviate the pressure of his return next season.
The Oden injury makes the Seattle Supersonics look like the winners of 2007 NBA draft, since Kevin Durant didn’t suffer an unfortunate preseason injury. Wait a minute, not so fast. He just did. Granted, Durant’s sprained ankle shouldn’t sideline him for too long, but for all the hoopla surrounding this year’s top two picks, it doesn’t look like either of them will be playing on their teams opening nights. When Durant does come back, he will be playing on a team gutted of all its offense, now that Allen and Lewis have fled for the East. The Sonics have no identity right now, mostly because the type of player Durant will be relies heavily on how his skill set will translate to the NBA, more importantly, what position he will play. He’s between two and three at the moment, but there is still hope that he grow into his wiry frame, and into a player in the making of Kevin Garnett. Durant will need to bulk up, because his current body weight will get abused in the big league. The team is also being built around Jeff Green, a much stronger force, who plays smart and athletic ball. You can’t do much worse as far as young pieces to the puzzle, but the rest of the Sonics squad really does nothing for me. They have a hobbit of a point guard in Luke Ridnour, and a lack of height in the frontcourt. Durant excites me, but Seattle is still years and roster moves away from competing.
As the rebuilding line rolls on, we are left with the Minnesota Timberwolves. As much flack as GM Kevin McHale gets, you got to tip your hat to him for not giving Garnett away. Instead, he got the league’s second best young big man in Al Jefferson, who I have right behind Dwight Howard in under-25 potential. He also got an interesting project in Gerald Green, a solid role player in Ryan Gomes, and an inspiring documentary film star in Sebastian Telfair. The truth is, the trade was a must make, considering how miserable the team was with Garnett. Sure they need to rebuild now, but we’re talking about a team that hasn’t made the playoffs for two straight years with the Big Ticket. Obviously they are too young and inexperienced to do anything this year, but the organization immediately got off to the right foot by getting a good return investment. I still need to see something from Randy Foye. He didn’t score or pass enough last year to garner enough positive outlook. I’m also up in the air with the drafting of Corey Brewer. He is a defensive minded player, and this team is going to struggle scoring points, especially that they have now traded Ricky Davis away for deadweight in Antoine Walker. This team will struggle in general, and the pressure may get to Jefferson early, in a new, strange city. The Wolves, in my opinion, will contend with Philadelphia for the league’s worst record.
Prediction: The Northwest is clearly a rebuilding division when the bottom three is considered, however, the top two teams have a lot to prove, and may need to prove it this season. Utah is coming off a very successful year, winning its division and making it to the Western Conference Finals. The next step is getting into the finals, whether they have to go through Texas or Arizona to get there. The clock isn’t ticking for the team, still fairly young, as much as it is for Sloan. The Nuggets, with one of the highest payrolls in the league and a much hyped duo in Iverson and Anthony, are also being expected to compete for a title. The allure of their top two superstars has been very much downgraded though, after Boston rolled out its even more impressive top three. If the Nuggets stay healthy, I think they will eek out the division due to their overall talent.
Pacific Division-
While there still isn’t a team as fun to watch as the Phoenix Suns, it’s pretty safe to say that the fun is wearing thin for the players, who are still waiting to break into the finals. This year could be the year, but it’s hard to say why or how. The team will continue to do what it did best last year, run up and down the floor for 48 minutes straight, and thrive solely on turnovers on the defensive end. There is no reason to think they’ll do anything differently – they kept the core of the team intact, and added Grant Hill to run at guard and play some point forward. This team doesn’t have an emphasis on defense, something Dallas eventually reformed to and they are now one of the league’s best defensive teams. Amare Stoudemire is only an average shot blocker for his size, and Raja Bell is their best perimeter defender. Nonetheless, some analysts say it will be impossible for a team like this to win a championship and I disagree. The Lakers won a handful of rings in the eighties with the same style. The Suns should once again dominate the regular season and win the non-competitive Pacific. What they will need to do is change their style of play a little in the playoffs, and toughen up, especially if they play the Spurs. Remember, last year’s series between the two was marred by an incident that suspended Stoudemire and Boris Diaw for a game. The Suns can’t let themselves be pushed around this time.
The Los Angeles Lakers season weighs heavily on the status of Kobe Bryant, and as I type this entry, trade talks are allegedly starting to heat up. The Lakers are asking the Bulls for a package that would include Luol Deng, Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah - something Chicago is reluctant to offer for just Kobe. I think if the Lakers are serious about dealing Kobe, they will need to throw in Lamar Odom in some type of salary-friendly three team deal, since he doesn’t seem to figure into their future regardless of the scenario. This whole mess with Bryant is making it really hard to peg what type of team the Lakers will be this year, but for now I’ll survey the current roster, Bryant included. First off, the team is once again desperately lacking at point guard, and will look toward an aging Derek Fisher to run the show. Waiting in the wings is rookie Javaris Crittenton, who isn’t ready to contribute. I’m not impressed with their frontline either, which some analysts describe as deep. I’m sorry, but the word “deep” doesn’t come to mind when I envision Chris Mihm and Kwame Brown sharing minutes at the 4 and 5. I like Ronny Turiaf and Luke Walton as role-players…on a team that has its bigger contributors figured out. The bright spot on this roster remains young center Andrew Bynum, who for some reason takes Kobe’s criticism to heart. In my opinion, Kobe is a cancer on this team. He plays so coy and naïve when interviewed about his future status, when it’s quite obvious that he is instigating the whole thing. The Lakers would be wise to trade him now for the best offer possible, and look toward rebuilding with the rest of the young West.
The Golden State Warriors were the Colorado Rockies of basketball last season, riding a season ending surge into the playoffs, followed by a huge upset against the Mavericks. The magical run fizzled against Utah, when the perimeter orientated Road Warriors ran out of gas. One of the biggest questions going into this season is if the Warriors can convert their late season winning formula into a whole season. I’m skeptical. The team is really small, playing a traditional small forward, Al Harrington, at power forward, a traditional shooting guard, Stephen Jackson, at small forward, with a short two, Monta Ellis playing alongside Baron Davis in the backcourt. They have a physically gifted center in Andris Biedrins, and his value is crucial. He will need to continue boarding and blocking shots to make up for the team’s suspect height. They are an exciting team to watch, and were able to keep their deep roster intact, after almost losing sixth man Matt Barnes to free agency. On top of that they have a strong home court advantage - crucial in basketball – and the true fans should be strong in numbers from game one of the season. (Not the fake celebrity fans that ate up all the Jazz series tickets, totally killing the vibe at Oracle Arena). If Baron Davis can stay healthy, the Warriors should contend for a low playoff seed, but like the Wizards of the East, they are simply too small, and limited defensively (30th in points allowed last year) to compete with the big boys.
I only saw Shaun Livingston’s crushing knee injury once, and it was once too much. The thing shattered and crumbled like a Pepsi can in a vice grip. Ouch please. With him out for the year, and Elton Brand out for at least half, the Los Angeles Clippers could pretty much punt this season for a high draft pick. It’s really the trend in the west this year, with so many teams rebuilding due to injury, losing star players, or overall digression. It should make the conference very top heavy this year, and not as competitive for the last couple of spots. As for the Clippers, it should be the Corey Maggette show, since he is playing for a contract and should make fantasy owners happy. I think the Brand injury will give rookie Al Thornton a good spot at showing how NBA ready he is, but it should only serve as a footnote to the Clippers frustrating season. Ugh, I’m struggling for words here. I have absolutely no interest in the 2007-8 Los Angeles Clippers season. I’m moving on to the next team now.
There was a time when the Sacramento Kings were the cover-boys of the NBA – a competitive team that was exciting to watch for consecutive, deep runs in the postseason. That team now feels like a distant memory, in favor of the current squad that totally lacks team chemistry. Mike Bibby is quickly becoming washed up at an early age, as his assists total dipped below five per game last season. He instead heaved up a lot of threes, which isn’t what you want out of your starting point guard, on a team that once thrived on ball movement. Apparently, he also doesn’t get along with Ron Artest – a real shocker there. I guess these are all problems the Kings won’t have to worry about for some time, since Bibby will be out with a torn finger for at least two months. Looking at the rest of the team, Kevin Martin is a good option at shooting guard, yes, but it is an easy position to fill, and he’s been called out for playing uninspiring defense. Mikki Moore appears to be one of those signings that won’t pan out well, but I do like his defensive presence over Shareef Abdur-Rahim, who owns the dubious honor of having the worst personal winning percentage of any player in the NBA. Yup, that's what you get with Shareef…a proven loser. Brad Miller is calling for a comeback, but it will be too little too late. On top of that, the man at the helm of this mockery is Reggie Theus of Hang Time fame. I think the Maloof brothers are running on empty these days, and the Kings are slowly becoming a non-priority. As a result, this team will be outside of the playoff picture for the foreseeable future.
Prediction: Clearly, this is the most lopsided, run-away-with it division, only rivaled by the Atlantic where Boston has yet to prove it can run away with first place. The Suns are a regular season juggernaut, and now they will be leading the way in a division that could lose its biggest star, has one team decimated by injury, and another that should compete, but is simply a lesser version of Phoenix. So the Suns winning is a given, but how far they get will depend on what type of team they are once May rolls around. Like I stated above, they need to toughen up on the defensive end. Nash will exert himself enough on the offensive end, and Bell will lock down the best swingman, so it will be up to Marion and Stoudemire to start scaring some of the West’s big men from the paint. If they do, it could finally be the Suns year to shine.
Southwest-
My lack of interest in the NBA over the years has to be subconsciously linked to the scattered dynasty of the San Antonio Spurs. Actually, it’s directly linked. I rarely bother watching the finals when the Spurs make it, and that’s pretty much every other year. What can I say, they play a boring half-court game, Ginobili’s bald spot is getting increasingly larger in HD, they have managed to make Michael Finley a boring player (granted he’s getting old) and they have a bunch of unlikable players. Bruce Bowen is only a player you can like if he plays for your team, and Robert Horry has also grown into a heel of the league – especially after his hip check on Nash caused the suspensions and subsequent end of the Suns series last year. I’m going to let my bias reign supreme here, and say that I wish nothing but the worst for the Spurs this season. It’s going to take a Duncan injury to officially bury them, so let’s pray for that improbable scenario. Maybe, Eva Longoria can convince Tony Parker to leave the team for a new career as Fabrice, Gabrielle’s fag-hag fashion dresser on Desperate Housewives. It’s probably more likely than a Duncan injury. (And yes, I had to google Eva’s character name on that awful show.)
So Sports Illustrated says it’s the Dallas Mavericks year. I say – why exactly? The team didn’t improve, unless Eddie Jones is that missing piece of the puzzle I am overlooking. Dirk Nowitzki went on some spiritual awakening trip after that loss to Golden State, which apparently will make him choke less in the playoffs? I’m not going to write off the Mavericks, because they have been so consistently dominant in the regular season for almost a decade now. They are a team that was able to change its defensive mindset, and are now consistently atop the league in points allowed, fourth last year. Plus, they have a young emerging star in Josh Howard to spare Nowitzki now, even though his temper was displayed this pre-season, leading to a season-opening two game suspension. Hopefully the incident was an aberration, because the Mavericks have been a clean-cut team and don’t need to deal with a hothead. A glaring weakness with this team, that doesn’t receive enough attention, is their lack of a point guard. Devin Harris, who the team traded up to get in the draft in 04, is now entering his fourth year as a Maverick. His most recent stats (10.2 p, 2.5 r, 3.7 a) are just not impressive, especially the assists, which are staggeringly low for a point guard on a top team. Management, however, sees nothing wrong with Harris at the position, and they’re doomed to get the same production again this year. With the team’s best playmaker, Jason Terry, allegedly being pushed out of the starting lineup for Jerry Stackhouse’s sake, the team will find themselves without a strong passer a lot this year, causing Dirk to create more of his own shots, and continue the burden that buried them in the playoffs. Unless this team wakes up and realizes it needs a new point guard, one with leadership, I don’t think the Mavericks can win a championship.
The most intriguing contender this year may be the Houston Rockets, who are hoping to have Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady healthy for a whole year. It’s a big if, considering Yao missed a decent chunk of last year’s season, and because McGrady’s injury is a chronic, nagging one to his back, that will probably never evade his career. The team is expecting to plug in a huge hole at power forward with Luis Scola, an Argentinean who plays for Spain, and is widely considered the MVP of the Euro league. If Scola can over-exceed his expectations, and produce a solid double-double with some defense, the Rockets could be on the right track. They have a great role player in Shane Battier, who should thrive from playing alongside another fundamentally sound veteran in Scola, in comparison to Juwan Howard, who I imagine is very depressing to play with. The team’s biggest question mark is the logjam at point guard, where Rafer Alston, Mike James and Steve Francis will all battle for minutes. Alston looks to start, but his terrible shooting percentage may open up the door for either James or Francis, who for what it's worth, both had their best years in Houston. I like the Rockets, but it depends a lot on just how good Scola really is. Nothing is certain with these Euro guys, but if he’s seriously the best of the best, the odds are in Houston’s favor to win a playoff series this year, and maybe more.
The New Orleans Hornets , now officialy out of Oklahoma City, are a team that would really benefit from playing in the east, and it sucks for them, because they recently did. It’s tough for the young team to establish itself among Phoenix and the Texas big three, and it’s unfortunate because they have a solid young core. Chris Paul is one of the brightest stars in this league, possessing an all-around game that lends from so many greats at his position. His health, and that of fellow young star, power forward David West, cannot be an issue in the future, and this year will be a good barometer of that. While Paul is going in healthy, West, unfortunately, is nursing an ankle injury and may miss the beginning of the season. It’s discouraging, but at the same time the team will welcome back Peja Stojakovic’s must needed scoring and shooting, which was lost when he went down with an injury last year. Amid all these injuries, Tyson Chandler has been at full strength playing center, and really anchors this team with his board and blocks. He is already a valuable asset to the team, and if he could get his scoring up in the teens, could additionally help boost a bottom-feeder offense. This team will need to stay healthy if they want to make the playoffs, and right now it’s West who’s looking like the most vulnerable part of that equation. They are also going to need production from their unproductive bench, which could come from rookie Julian Wright, and possibly second year big man Hilton Armstrong. But like I said, health will dictate this team’s success - probably more than any other team in the league.
Finally, the last team in my season preview happens to be the league’s worst team from last season, the Memphis Grizzlies. All that losing didn’t help out during draft time, when the Grizzlies had to settle for the 4th pick, and missed out on the big top two (both currently injured, mind you). They ended up with Mike Conley, a highly touted point guard, who if you ask me is a little overrated. He didn’t look like the greatest playmaker at Ohio State, but he does play with great speed and energy. The Grizzlies current point guard, however, is slower than Dick Bavetta with a bloodied knee. Apparently Damon Stoudamire is starting the season off, and I can only hope this is to give Conley time to see just how average he has to be to steal the starting spot. In other news, Pau Gasol “should” be back for a full season, and I put quotations on should because he hasn’t played most of the preseason. Apparently, the once sour Grizzly is happy this season because they added some Spanish dude, Juan Carlos Navarro, he used to play alongside, and possibly backpack through Europe with too. Will it be enough to make the Grizzlies contend? Mike Miller definitely helps their cause by becoming a more reliable scorer at this stage in his career, and there is a lot of hype starting to surround Rudy Gay. With those two, Gasol, Darko Milicic, Hakim Warrick and Stromile Swift, the Grizzlies have arguably enough size to compete in the West – the question is whether they have anything else. I’m going to wrap this all up by saying that their season will depend a lot on the young Conley, and if he has the playmaking ability, jump-shot and heart to lead a team of talented 6”6+ pieces. If he does, the Grizzlies have a shot to compete, and possibly make the playoffs.
Prediction: This is the best division, obviously, when I say the last place team has a chance to make the playoffs. Look, I know I have the analyst credibility of Sheryl Swoopes if I say that a whole division will make the playoffs, but four teams? Maybe. That would leave spots for Phoenix, Golden State, Utah and Denver, as I don’t see much hope for anyone from this group: Minnesota, Seattle, Portland, Sacramento, and the two teams in Los Angeles. So, I'll leave it at this. The boring ass Spurs will fend off Dallas and Houston for the division, and as long as the Hornets stay healthy, the much improved Grizzlies will fall short, with a 40-42 win campaign. Like I said, the west is top heavy, and the top pretty much consists of the Southwest.
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