Awards Predictions

I don’t like predicting things in sports, but I guess I owe it to myself to try. It’s tougher in the beginning of the year, because so much is uncertain with injuries, position battles and the like. Nonetheless, here’s my two cents on the major awards for the 2007-08 season, and who will be hoisting them over head with an awkward, unenthused smile by season’s end. Enjoy.


MVP: LeBron James

Today I read Bill Simmons’ rushed NBA preview (he self proclaimed it), and noticed that he left the Cavaliers out of the playoff picture. And so, the LeBron hating train rolls along, this time from his biggest critic/supporter. Everyone can breathe a sigh of relief, however, because Cleveland had resigned the Pippen to LeBron’s Jordan – the incomparable Sasha Pavlovic. We can all keep our fingers crossed that a deal for Anderson Varejo is imminent.

Like I stated in my Eastern Conference preview - while these players play valuable roles - the most important role on this team belongs to LeBron. Without him, this team would be dreadful. They would be the worst in the league, and the Pavlovic-Varejo combo wouldn’t be able to demand a mid-level deal to save their lives (and it’s not like they’re attracting so many buyers considering their current worth). Are we totally forgetting how LeBron dominated in the Eastern Conference Finals last year? How, even though he was called out for inconsistency last year, he still led his team to 50 wins and with a stat line that looked like this (27.3 p, 6.7 r, 6.0 a).

The crucial point is this – if an MVP is supposed to be a player with the greatest individual value to his team, albeit it is a winning team, what other player better fits the bill? His candidacy for the award is only raised when it’s factored in that I feel the Cavaliers will win the highly contested Central this year, and that LeBron will improve in some of his weaker statistical categories, namely free throw percentage. Enough is enough. LeBron is the best player in this league, and needs to be acknowledged for it with the hardware.

You can also make a case for: Steve Nash, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett.
Sleeper pick: Pau Gasol

ROY: Kevin Durant

Luckily for Durant, the rookie of the year award is based almost entirely on individual stats, so the Sonics miserable season shouldn’t have an effect on his chances. While he is currently nursing an injury, Durant should be healthy enough this year to get on the floor, and fill out a pretty balanced stat sheet, common in other recent ROY winners (Brandon Roy, Chris Paul, LeBron). While his position is uncertain, it’s almost irrelevant when Durant’s scoring is considered. The Sonics literally need him to get 20 points a game, and considering how often their offensive game-plan will break down over the course of the season, Durant should have plenty of opportunities to create shots. His rebound total will depend on whether he slides into a forward spot, but believe you me, their will be no consistency to what the Sonics throw out this year, with another tweener draft pick in Jeff Green and two undersized big men in Chris Wilcox and Nick Collison in the fray. It could be a very frustrating and confusing season for Durant, but I have no doubt he will score at least twenty, grab around five rebounds, and average at least a steal in his rookie year. His percentages have a good chance of being shot though.

You can also make a case for: Al Horford, Al Thornton, Corey Brewer.
Sleeper pick: Luis Scola (If I don’t pick him, nobody else will)

Most Improved Player: Ronnie Brewer

This is a tough category to peg, because there are a handful of worthy candidates and it is simply too early to tell who will make the hugest individual jump in statistical categories. After opening night of the season, however, it’s hard to argue against a case for Ronnie Brewer, Utah’s second year shooting guard, who has locked down the starting gig for the year. He had an impressive debut, scoring 18 points with 4 steals, and this came with fairly limited minutes for a starter. His minutes should increase (still puzzles me why Gordan Giricek was playing the fourth quarter), making it very possible for Brewer to average close to twenty points this season. He compliments his stat line with solid percentages, and a league leading amount of steals – think around 2 per game. If he can achieve this, it makes him a great candidate for this award when you consider his numbers from a year ago. As a rookie scraping for minutes, Brewer average just 4.6 points and under a steal per game. Increasing his scoring average by almost 300 percent should be enough to make him a top candidate.

You can also make a case for: Rudy Gay, LaMarcus Aldridge, Andrea Bargnani (Yes they are all second year guys, but doesn’t the award seem to be made for them?)
Sleeper pick: Jameer Nelson or Andrew Bynum

Sixth Man: Leandro Barbosa

Don’t really see the need in picking against a guy I predicted would win last year’s award at the All-Star break, and that’s exactly what he did. Plain and simple, statistically and invariably, Barbosa is the best pound-for-pound sixth man in the NBA. He scores a ton of points in limited minutes, is deadly from long range, and has a solid passing game to spare the league’s best point guard. I say pound-for-pound, because David Lee brings a whole different element with his post presence, but when it comes down to the one guy who will revitalize a tiring squad the second he snaps off his warm-ups, Barbosa is the man. Last year I compared him to a NOS tank that gives Japanese race cars that speed-burst to the next level. Respect.

You can also make a case for: David Lee, Manu Ginobili, Jose Calderon
Sleeper pick: Walter Hermann

Coach of the Year: Jerry Sloan

Yawn. I really don’t care about this category as I have stated in the past. I went as far as to give it to a fictional movie character played by Nick Nolte in my mid-season report last season. I seemed to jock Jerry Sloan a decent amount in my Utah preview, so…there you have it. Oh yeah, it’s probably important to know that the historic coach has NEVER won the award, while the following guys have: Doc Rivers. Yes, that was a short list. But please, can someone give this guy his due?

You can also make a case for: Coaches whose teams win a lot of games.
Sleeper pick: OK, I’ll exert some effort here. Mark Iavaroni.

Defensive Player of the Year: Marcus Camby

If Camby stays healthy, he is simply the most intimidating defensive presence in the post, a title Ben Wallace has kindly bestowed to him in the past two years. You can go with a perimeter defender here, and take Bruce Bowen, but I don’t want to award Bruce Bowen for an achievement. You can take a versatile guy that fills a stat sheet, like Josh Smith or Gerald Wallace, but the overall defensive impact of those guys is far less when compared to Camby. When you have such an imposing shot-blocker lurking down low, it’s not the amount of blocks that he is getting (3.3) as much as the shots he is preventing from even becoming attempted. That’s what an intimidating post defender does - he deters field goals from even being considered. He makes them not exist, and forces his opponents to choose other scoring options. When Camby is healthy, he is the best player in the league at defending high percentage shots, by making them low percentage shots, or no percentage shots. He’s close to a unanimous choice.

You can also make a case for: Andrei Kirilenko, Gerald Wallace, Josh Smith
Sleeper pick: Emeka Okafor

BEST IN THE WEST? Think Steve Nash with a mean streak

Western Conference Preview

Northwest Division-

Jerry Sloan of the Utah Jazz is quite the rarity in professional sports. He coached a perennial playoff team for years with Karl Malone and John Stockton, up until their inevitable departure. He was then left with two options – stay and rebuild an entirely new franchise, or call it a career in Utah or the league altogether. Most coaches choose option 2. Sloan, on the otherhand, stuck it out for a few years, and last season, had another division championship under his belt with the new era Jazz. It’s a true testament to his patience and desire for the game. How long he remains with the team is the question. The Jazz were ranked no. 2 for me in basketball intelligence last year, second only to the team that ousted them in the Western Conference Finals. They are led by Deron Williams, a pure point guard who should top 10 assists this season, and a 20-10 power forward horse in Carlos Boozer. Stockton and Malone reincarnated? Not quite, but this team is complimented by a versatile center in Mehmet Okur. Their final two starting spots are more intriguing. Shooting guard Ronnie Brewer will need to develop a consistent offensive game, even though he isn’t known for his shooting. And it should be a make-or-break year for Andre Kirilenko, whose once all-around game has faded over the past two seasons. Nonetheless, they should compete for the division again, and are in good shape for the future, with or without their prolific coach.

It was a frenzied year for the Denver Nuggets last season, after the brawl in New York beget the trade for Allen Iverson. Regardless if the two events are connected or not, the Nuggets never really jelled once Carmelo Anthony returned from injury and played alongside A.I. With a full training camp under their belt, the Nuggets will now have a fresh start to prove if the formula is successful. Both players are top ten scorers, but will need to focus on the other parts of their games to be winners, especially defensive pressure. There is loads of that down low as long as Marcus Camby stays healthy, which surprisingly has been the case for two years now. Along with him, Nene is also starting to play more consistently and with a mean streak. I forget that this team still has Kenyon Martin, and will leave it up to him to remind me. An interesting thing when looking at the Nuggets is what they'll get out of point guard. Chucky Atkins is a pass first guy with a few pretty good options, but his usefulness will depend on Iverson’s resilience to give up the lead. The Nuggets just need to figure out how to click, because they have every hole filled, or close to it. I worry a little bit about George Karl running the show. He has grown to lose his cool over the years, and has a potentially tumultuous team to further fuel his fire. A playoff berth is a lock, but I don’t know if the Nuggets have the mental composure to play against the conference elite.

Here’s where the division gets ugly. Let’s start with a team that had every reason to smile four months ago, but has since had only heartache and pain. The Portland Trail Blazers drafted Greg Oden with the first pick this June, and then immediately traded their best player in Zack Randolph to clear the new franchise’s runway. Several other draft day moves, tweaks and trades had the Blazers looking primed to make a small dent this season, followed by a huge impact in following years. With Oden now out for the year, the Blazers are worse than they were last season on paper, and to add insult to injury – or should I say, injury to injury – Brandon Roy is suffering from a painful bone spur in his heel. They aren’t going anywhere this year, and can only look forward to the fact they will collect another high lottery pick as a consolation prize, further strengthening the outlook of a team built for the future. Still, the Oden injury has to trouble Portland fans. I can’t remember too many all-time greats who started their careers by missing an entire rookie season to injury. (Please email me any names if you find out). One bright spot should be emerging power forward LaMarcus Aldridge, who showed promise towards the end of his rookie year. If he could have a breakout year in Oden’s absence, it could help alleviate the pressure of his return next season.

The Oden injury makes the Seattle Supersonics look like the winners of 2007 NBA draft, since Kevin Durant didn’t suffer an unfortunate preseason injury. Wait a minute, not so fast. He just did. Granted, Durant’s sprained ankle shouldn’t sideline him for too long, but for all the hoopla surrounding this year’s top two picks, it doesn’t look like either of them will be playing on their teams opening nights. When Durant does come back, he will be playing on a team gutted of all its offense, now that Allen and Lewis have fled for the East. The Sonics have no identity right now, mostly because the type of player Durant will be relies heavily on how his skill set will translate to the NBA, more importantly, what position he will play. He’s between two and three at the moment, but there is still hope that he grow into his wiry frame, and into a player in the making of Kevin Garnett. Durant will need to bulk up, because his current body weight will get abused in the big league. The team is also being built around Jeff Green, a much stronger force, who plays smart and athletic ball. You can’t do much worse as far as young pieces to the puzzle, but the rest of the Sonics squad really does nothing for me. They have a hobbit of a point guard in Luke Ridnour, and a lack of height in the frontcourt. Durant excites me, but Seattle is still years and roster moves away from competing.

As the rebuilding line rolls on, we are left with the Minnesota Timberwolves. As much flack as GM Kevin McHale gets, you got to tip your hat to him for not giving Garnett away. Instead, he got the league’s second best young big man in Al Jefferson, who I have right behind Dwight Howard in under-25 potential. He also got an interesting project in Gerald Green, a solid role player in Ryan Gomes, and an inspiring documentary film star in Sebastian Telfair. The truth is, the trade was a must make, considering how miserable the team was with Garnett. Sure they need to rebuild now, but we’re talking about a team that hasn’t made the playoffs for two straight years with the Big Ticket. Obviously they are too young and inexperienced to do anything this year, but the organization immediately got off to the right foot by getting a good return investment. I still need to see something from Randy Foye. He didn’t score or pass enough last year to garner enough positive outlook. I’m also up in the air with the drafting of Corey Brewer. He is a defensive minded player, and this team is going to struggle scoring points, especially that they have now traded Ricky Davis away for deadweight in Antoine Walker. This team will struggle in general, and the pressure may get to Jefferson early, in a new, strange city. The Wolves, in my opinion, will contend with Philadelphia for the league’s worst record.

Prediction: The Northwest is clearly a rebuilding division when the bottom three is considered, however, the top two teams have a lot to prove, and may need to prove it this season. Utah is coming off a very successful year, winning its division and making it to the Western Conference Finals. The next step is getting into the finals, whether they have to go through Texas or Arizona to get there. The clock isn’t ticking for the team, still fairly young, as much as it is for Sloan. The Nuggets, with one of the highest payrolls in the league and a much hyped duo in Iverson and Anthony, are also being expected to compete for a title. The allure of their top two superstars has been very much downgraded though, after Boston rolled out its even more impressive top three. If the Nuggets stay healthy, I think they will eek out the division due to their overall talent.

Pacific Division-

While there still isn’t a team as fun to watch as the Phoenix Suns, it’s pretty safe to say that the fun is wearing thin for the players, who are still waiting to break into the finals. This year could be the year, but it’s hard to say why or how. The team will continue to do what it did best last year, run up and down the floor for 48 minutes straight, and thrive solely on turnovers on the defensive end. There is no reason to think they’ll do anything differently – they kept the core of the team intact, and added Grant Hill to run at guard and play some point forward. This team doesn’t have an emphasis on defense, something Dallas eventually reformed to and they are now one of the league’s best defensive teams. Amare Stoudemire is only an average shot blocker for his size, and Raja Bell is their best perimeter defender. Nonetheless, some analysts say it will be impossible for a team like this to win a championship and I disagree. The Lakers won a handful of rings in the eighties with the same style. The Suns should once again dominate the regular season and win the non-competitive Pacific. What they will need to do is change their style of play a little in the playoffs, and toughen up, especially if they play the Spurs. Remember, last year’s series between the two was marred by an incident that suspended Stoudemire and Boris Diaw for a game. The Suns can’t let themselves be pushed around this time.

The Los Angeles Lakers season weighs heavily on the status of Kobe Bryant, and as I type this entry, trade talks are allegedly starting to heat up. The Lakers are asking the Bulls for a package that would include Luol Deng, Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah - something Chicago is reluctant to offer for just Kobe. I think if the Lakers are serious about dealing Kobe, they will need to throw in Lamar Odom in some type of salary-friendly three team deal, since he doesn’t seem to figure into their future regardless of the scenario. This whole mess with Bryant is making it really hard to peg what type of team the Lakers will be this year, but for now I’ll survey the current roster, Bryant included. First off, the team is once again desperately lacking at point guard, and will look toward an aging Derek Fisher to run the show. Waiting in the wings is rookie Javaris Crittenton, who isn’t ready to contribute. I’m not impressed with their frontline either, which some analysts describe as deep. I’m sorry, but the word “deep” doesn’t come to mind when I envision Chris Mihm and Kwame Brown sharing minutes at the 4 and 5. I like Ronny Turiaf and Luke Walton as role-players…on a team that has its bigger contributors figured out. The bright spot on this roster remains young center Andrew Bynum, who for some reason takes Kobe’s criticism to heart. In my opinion, Kobe is a cancer on this team. He plays so coy and naïve when interviewed about his future status, when it’s quite obvious that he is instigating the whole thing. The Lakers would be wise to trade him now for the best offer possible, and look toward rebuilding with the rest of the young West.

The Golden State Warriors were the Colorado Rockies of basketball last season, riding a season ending surge into the playoffs, followed by a huge upset against the Mavericks. The magical run fizzled against Utah, when the perimeter orientated Road Warriors ran out of gas. One of the biggest questions going into this season is if the Warriors can convert their late season winning formula into a whole season. I’m skeptical. The team is really small, playing a traditional small forward, Al Harrington, at power forward, a traditional shooting guard, Stephen Jackson, at small forward, with a short two, Monta Ellis playing alongside Baron Davis in the backcourt. They have a physically gifted center in Andris Biedrins, and his value is crucial. He will need to continue boarding and blocking shots to make up for the team’s suspect height. They are an exciting team to watch, and were able to keep their deep roster intact, after almost losing sixth man Matt Barnes to free agency. On top of that they have a strong home court advantage - crucial in basketball – and the true fans should be strong in numbers from game one of the season. (Not the fake celebrity fans that ate up all the Jazz series tickets, totally killing the vibe at Oracle Arena). If Baron Davis can stay healthy, the Warriors should contend for a low playoff seed, but like the Wizards of the East, they are simply too small, and limited defensively (30th in points allowed last year) to compete with the big boys.

I only saw Shaun Livingston’s crushing knee injury once, and it was once too much. The thing shattered and crumbled like a Pepsi can in a vice grip. Ouch please. With him out for the year, and Elton Brand out for at least half, the Los Angeles Clippers could pretty much punt this season for a high draft pick. It’s really the trend in the west this year, with so many teams rebuilding due to injury, losing star players, or overall digression. It should make the conference very top heavy this year, and not as competitive for the last couple of spots. As for the Clippers, it should be the Corey Maggette show, since he is playing for a contract and should make fantasy owners happy. I think the Brand injury will give rookie Al Thornton a good spot at showing how NBA ready he is, but it should only serve as a footnote to the Clippers frustrating season. Ugh, I’m struggling for words here. I have absolutely no interest in the 2007-8 Los Angeles Clippers season. I’m moving on to the next team now.

There was a time when the Sacramento Kings were the cover-boys of the NBA – a competitive team that was exciting to watch for consecutive, deep runs in the postseason. That team now feels like a distant memory, in favor of the current squad that totally lacks team chemistry. Mike Bibby is quickly becoming washed up at an early age, as his assists total dipped below five per game last season. He instead heaved up a lot of threes, which isn’t what you want out of your starting point guard, on a team that once thrived on ball movement. Apparently, he also doesn’t get along with Ron Artest – a real shocker there. I guess these are all problems the Kings won’t have to worry about for some time, since Bibby will be out with a torn finger for at least two months. Looking at the rest of the team, Kevin Martin is a good option at shooting guard, yes, but it is an easy position to fill, and he’s been called out for playing uninspiring defense. Mikki Moore appears to be one of those signings that won’t pan out well, but I do like his defensive presence over Shareef Abdur-Rahim, who owns the dubious honor of having the worst personal winning percentage of any player in the NBA. Yup, that's what you get with Shareef…a proven loser. Brad Miller is calling for a comeback, but it will be too little too late. On top of that, the man at the helm of this mockery is Reggie Theus of Hang Time fame. I think the Maloof brothers are running on empty these days, and the Kings are slowly becoming a non-priority. As a result, this team will be outside of the playoff picture for the foreseeable future.

Prediction: Clearly, this is the most lopsided, run-away-with it division, only rivaled by the Atlantic where Boston has yet to prove it can run away with first place. The Suns are a regular season juggernaut, and now they will be leading the way in a division that could lose its biggest star, has one team decimated by injury, and another that should compete, but is simply a lesser version of Phoenix. So the Suns winning is a given, but how far they get will depend on what type of team they are once May rolls around. Like I stated above, they need to toughen up on the defensive end. Nash will exert himself enough on the offensive end, and Bell will lock down the best swingman, so it will be up to Marion and Stoudemire to start scaring some of the West’s big men from the paint. If they do, it could finally be the Suns year to shine.

Southwest-

My lack of interest in the NBA over the years has to be subconsciously linked to the scattered dynasty of the San Antonio Spurs. Actually, it’s directly linked. I rarely bother watching the finals when the Spurs make it, and that’s pretty much every other year. What can I say, they play a boring half-court game, Ginobili’s bald spot is getting increasingly larger in HD, they have managed to make Michael Finley a boring player (granted he’s getting old) and they have a bunch of unlikable players. Bruce Bowen is only a player you can like if he plays for your team, and Robert Horry has also grown into a heel of the league – especially after his hip check on Nash caused the suspensions and subsequent end of the Suns series last year. I’m going to let my bias reign supreme here, and say that I wish nothing but the worst for the Spurs this season. It’s going to take a Duncan injury to officially bury them, so let’s pray for that improbable scenario. Maybe, Eva Longoria can convince Tony Parker to leave the team for a new career as Fabrice, Gabrielle’s fag-hag fashion dresser on Desperate Housewives. It’s probably more likely than a Duncan injury. (And yes, I had to google Eva’s character name on that awful show.)

So Sports Illustrated says it’s the Dallas Mavericks year. I say – why exactly? The team didn’t improve, unless Eddie Jones is that missing piece of the puzzle I am overlooking. Dirk Nowitzki went on some spiritual awakening trip after that loss to Golden State, which apparently will make him choke less in the playoffs? I’m not going to write off the Mavericks, because they have been so consistently dominant in the regular season for almost a decade now. They are a team that was able to change its defensive mindset, and are now consistently atop the league in points allowed, fourth last year. Plus, they have a young emerging star in Josh Howard to spare Nowitzki now, even though his temper was displayed this pre-season, leading to a season-opening two game suspension. Hopefully the incident was an aberration, because the Mavericks have been a clean-cut team and don’t need to deal with a hothead. A glaring weakness with this team, that doesn’t receive enough attention, is their lack of a point guard. Devin Harris, who the team traded up to get in the draft in 04, is now entering his fourth year as a Maverick. His most recent stats (10.2 p, 2.5 r, 3.7 a) are just not impressive, especially the assists, which are staggeringly low for a point guard on a top team. Management, however, sees nothing wrong with Harris at the position, and they’re doomed to get the same production again this year. With the team’s best playmaker, Jason Terry, allegedly being pushed out of the starting lineup for Jerry Stackhouse’s sake, the team will find themselves without a strong passer a lot this year, causing Dirk to create more of his own shots, and continue the burden that buried them in the playoffs. Unless this team wakes up and realizes it needs a new point guard, one with leadership, I don’t think the Mavericks can win a championship.

The most intriguing contender this year may be the Houston Rockets, who are hoping to have Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady healthy for a whole year. It’s a big if, considering Yao missed a decent chunk of last year’s season, and because McGrady’s injury is a chronic, nagging one to his back, that will probably never evade his career. The team is expecting to plug in a huge hole at power forward with Luis Scola, an Argentinean who plays for Spain, and is widely considered the MVP of the Euro league. If Scola can over-exceed his expectations, and produce a solid double-double with some defense, the Rockets could be on the right track. They have a great role player in Shane Battier, who should thrive from playing alongside another fundamentally sound veteran in Scola, in comparison to Juwan Howard, who I imagine is very depressing to play with. The team’s biggest question mark is the logjam at point guard, where Rafer Alston, Mike James and Steve Francis will all battle for minutes. Alston looks to start, but his terrible shooting percentage may open up the door for either James or Francis, who for what it's worth, both had their best years in Houston. I like the Rockets, but it depends a lot on just how good Scola really is. Nothing is certain with these Euro guys, but if he’s seriously the best of the best, the odds are in Houston’s favor to win a playoff series this year, and maybe more.

The New Orleans Hornets , now officialy out of Oklahoma City, are a team that would really benefit from playing in the east, and it sucks for them, because they recently did. It’s tough for the young team to establish itself among Phoenix and the Texas big three, and it’s unfortunate because they have a solid young core. Chris Paul is one of the brightest stars in this league, possessing an all-around game that lends from so many greats at his position. His health, and that of fellow young star, power forward David West, cannot be an issue in the future, and this year will be a good barometer of that. While Paul is going in healthy, West, unfortunately, is nursing an ankle injury and may miss the beginning of the season. It’s discouraging, but at the same time the team will welcome back Peja Stojakovic’s must needed scoring and shooting, which was lost when he went down with an injury last year. Amid all these injuries, Tyson Chandler has been at full strength playing center, and really anchors this team with his board and blocks. He is already a valuable asset to the team, and if he could get his scoring up in the teens, could additionally help boost a bottom-feeder offense. This team will need to stay healthy if they want to make the playoffs, and right now it’s West who’s looking like the most vulnerable part of that equation. They are also going to need production from their unproductive bench, which could come from rookie Julian Wright, and possibly second year big man Hilton Armstrong. But like I said, health will dictate this team’s success - probably more than any other team in the league.

Finally, the last team in my season preview happens to be the league’s worst team from last season, the Memphis Grizzlies. All that losing didn’t help out during draft time, when the Grizzlies had to settle for the 4th pick, and missed out on the big top two (both currently injured, mind you). They ended up with Mike Conley, a highly touted point guard, who if you ask me is a little overrated. He didn’t look like the greatest playmaker at Ohio State, but he does play with great speed and energy. The Grizzlies current point guard, however, is slower than Dick Bavetta with a bloodied knee. Apparently Damon Stoudamire is starting the season off, and I can only hope this is to give Conley time to see just how average he has to be to steal the starting spot. In other news, Pau Gasol “should” be back for a full season, and I put quotations on should because he hasn’t played most of the preseason. Apparently, the once sour Grizzly is happy this season because they added some Spanish dude, Juan Carlos Navarro, he used to play alongside, and possibly backpack through Europe with too. Will it be enough to make the Grizzlies contend? Mike Miller definitely helps their cause by becoming a more reliable scorer at this stage in his career, and there is a lot of hype starting to surround Rudy Gay. With those two, Gasol, Darko Milicic, Hakim Warrick and Stromile Swift, the Grizzlies have arguably enough size to compete in the West – the question is whether they have anything else. I’m going to wrap this all up by saying that their season will depend a lot on the young Conley, and if he has the playmaking ability, jump-shot and heart to lead a team of talented 6”6+ pieces. If he does, the Grizzlies have a shot to compete, and possibly make the playoffs.

Prediction: This is the best division, obviously, when I say the last place team has a chance to make the playoffs. Look, I know I have the analyst credibility of Sheryl Swoopes if I say that a whole division will make the playoffs, but four teams? Maybe. That would leave spots for Phoenix, Golden State, Utah and Denver, as I don’t see much hope for anyone from this group: Minnesota, Seattle, Portland, Sacramento, and the two teams in Los Angeles. So, I'll leave it at this. The boring ass Spurs will fend off Dallas and Houston for the division, and as long as the Hornets stay healthy, the much improved Grizzlies will fall short, with a 40-42 win campaign. Like I said, the west is top heavy, and the top pretty much consists of the Southwest.

The Sports Jew's 2007 NBA Preview

(This is a three-parter, partnas. First off, a look at the Eastern Conference)


BOSTON THREE PARTY: The grass continues to get greener for a nation of Massholes.



The Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division-

Clearly, this is the Boston Celtics division to win. For a batch of teams referred to as the Titanic Division last season, it should take the injection of two superstars, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, into a team already consisting of one, Paul Pierce, to win the thing by default. The trio may take a little time to find its rhythm, but once the three of them get rolling, I think the Celtics are going to rack up winning streaks against the weaker parts of their schedule. Each superstar has their spot on the court to be fed - it will be up to Rajon Rondo to feed them. And it wouldn’t hurt for Kendrick Perkins to log in a solid season at center, allowing Kevin Garnett to play most of his minutes at power forward. This team should be as good as advertised.

As for last year’s division champs, the Toronto Raptors should still be a very sound basketball team that will make the playoffs, because they play smart basketball in the young and incompetent East. They have 48 solid minutes at point guard with T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon, the league’s best young big man in Chris Bosh, and last year’s number one pick, Andrea Bargnani, who finally began showing signs of his perimeter game late in his rookie season. I don’t know why analysts love gloating about Jorge Garbajosa’s garbage stat line (8.5. p, 4.9 r, 1.9 a) when praising this team, but I still like the Raptors to contend, and make that turbaned season ticket holder go nuts in his seat.

The New Jersey Nets are a schizophrenic team if I’ve come across one. At one point, they are ready to dump off Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson and rebuild, and at the next, they are focused on resigning Vince Carter, bolstering their frontline, and keeping those aforementioned players. With that said, if the Nets stay healthy, I like them this year. They are one of the smarter teams in the East with Kidd at the helm, and I really like Nenad Krstic at power forward if he can stay healthy and score in the high teens, which he did last year before getting hurt. This will allow Jamaal Magloire to focus on what he does best, rebound and log solid minutes at center. It would be a huge upgrade over Jason Collins, who the Nets have totally neglected their center position to for years now. This team, however, is one Kidd injury away from being a non-factor.

It’s too early to tell, but the Philadelphia 76ers could be the worst team in basketball this season, and a lot of it has to do with their dreadful lack of shooting. With the exception of Kyle Korver, who is not enough of a well rounded player to log serious minutes, this team cannot score outside of 15 feet for its life. Andre Iguodala is a nice, versatile player, who should make fantasy owners happy, but he scores his points with his feet. Andre Miller is possibly the worst shooting point guard in the NBA – he made 14 percent of his threes last year. Yes, 14. While this team had little chance to improve itself in the off-season, it’s a wonder why they took Thaddeus Young with their draft pick last June, an athletic freak that mirrors Iguodala’s game. It would have made much more sense to take another Young, Nick Young of USC, who is currently on the Wizards regular season roster. Thaddeus, on the other hand, is not expected to contribute minutes this season.

Finally, we are left with the New York Knicks. Anyone who reads me knows that I hold about as much positive bias for this team as the Winslows bestowed to their youngest daughter Judy on Family Matters. (And we wonder why she ended up in porn. Life’s mysteries). But this past draft day, when the Knicks dumped off a heap of wasted bench space for a 20-10 career headcase, I couldn’t find anything to complain about. The Knicks now have an abundance of low post scoring, over 50 points combined from Zack Randolph, Eddie Curry and David Lee. Many teams in the league would kill for half of that output. And for everyone worried how Randolph and Curry will share the load, it’s wise to know that Curry favors the right block, while Randolph sets up on the left, and can also shoot from Patrick Ewing territory. Scoring won’t be a problem. Neither will rebounding, if Curry can get his fat ass out of the way every once in a while. This team can’t block shots, it’s their cross to bear, and unless someone suddenly learns how - it’s going to be hard for them to be consistent on both sides of the floor. The key player in mind will once again be Stephon Marbury. It’s becoming a self fulfilling prophecy to think that a guy like Stephon could sharpen up his game and lead this Knicks team to victory. It makes it even harder to hope when he spends the off-season hosting a surreal late night talk show with the dialogue equivalent of a blunt cipher, while also claiming that he wants to play in Italy when his contracts up. Twenty bucks Marbury forgot what Italy is already. Nonetheless, I like the Knicks to squeeze into the postseason this year. An early season column on them, more in-depth, is inevitable.

Prediction: If all goes according to plan, the Boston Celtics should make it three in a row for Massachusetts pro sports teams winning their respective divisions, a feat I’m not sure has ever been done. (Come on Bruins, let’s make it four!) As for the rest, the Nets are the most dependable, the Knicks are the most talented, and the Raptors are the most likely to benefit from either of the other two’s mistakes. One of the three will take second though, and lock down a playoff spot. At least one will be the odd man out.

Central Division-

Not sure what all the commotion is about, but the Cleveland Cavaliers will probably win the Central again. Probably. They won it last year when everyone said LeBron was mailing in games, and that their coach looked more like Al Roker than a play caller, so what makes this year any different? Oh yes…the dreaded contract disputes of future hall-of-famers Anderson Varejo and Sasha Pavlovic. How can I forget. Look, I don’t want to totally discredit these guys, but Pavlovic is nothing special and Varejo is the kind of guy that can easily be replaced. He plays with great energy, and is a hassle on defense, but I’m pretty sure that there is a tough-nosed guy waiting in the D-League to fill that role. I just don’t understand why people feel the Cavaliers season is dependent on these two guys, who apparently are both not returning. The truth is that this is LeBron’s team. He just got them into the finals, and I’ pretty sure he want to get back. This team still has a solid trio of big men in Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden and Donyell Marshall, who all combine for underrated play upfront. Also, I am a Larry Hughes believer. People are way too hard on a guy who has dealt with family pain and injury, and it’s not like he was totally ineffective when he played last year (14.9 p, 3.8 r, 3.7 a, 1.2 s). Obviously, he needs to get healthy, but it’s ignorant to believe he can’t play second fiddle to LeBron. He’s never been a number one option, so why should an assumption exist that he wants to be.

The Chicago Bulls are probably the best young defensive team in basketball, and pardon my prejudice, but it’s funny that this is partly due to a white point guard, Kirk Hinrich, that absolutely hounds opponents. On top of that, their frontline is getting scary, with a still effective Ben Wallace, going into this season with two wing-span enhanced freaks, Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah, at his helm. Throw in a swingman with top basketball I.Q. in Luol Deng, and a dagger thrower in Ben Gordon, and there really isn’t anything not to like. However, there is. The Bulls, without a seasoned veteran scorer, just seem to lack a championship persona that even the All-Star inclined Pistons of 2004 were able to present. It seems ignorant to say, because I praise every inch of their lineup, but I still see this team as a very vulnerable competitor to anyone in the West. They are built better for the East, even with the addition of the Celtics, who they luckily don’t have to share a division with. I will say this - it wouldn’t shock me if the Bulls made a magical run to the Finals this season. Someone quote me on that.

Some Jabroni who contributed to the NBA Season Preview for Sports Illustrated said that the Detroit Pistons “don’t look as committed to the defensive end” under Flip Saunders. That’s funny, because the team gave up only 91.8 ppg last year, second best in the league. On the contrary, the Pistons scored only 96 ppg last season, which was good for 21st in the league. I’m going to be a real “stat guy” here, and say that their offense is the problem. On my scale of smart teams vs. talented teams, the Pistons rank high and low, and it’s because they’ve become so committed to their 1-4 starters, Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Rasheed Wallace. They have formed a chain of teamwork and consistency that does not break, because they all have stayed relatively healthy in the past three years. They are weak at center though, and are often left without a crunch-time scorer. The problem is, Mr. Big Shot is not that. Billups is a fine point guard, top ten in the league, but his Finals heroics has left him with somewhat of an unfulfilled legacy. As for Rip, it may be time for Walt Frazier’s favorite masked man to lose said mask. His scoring dipped last year, but I still think he is a great mid-range shooter that should be scoring at least 22 points a contest. The team is high on its young talent in rookie Rodney Stuckey and third year backup Jason Maxiell. I’m going to plead ignorance on both of them, and let the regular season do the talking.

Who here is ready for the new Run-n-Gunning, Revving-n-Running, Indiana Pacers??? I hope the players are, because they are not the Phoenix Suns, and simply saying they are going to play like them won’t make it happen. It’s a novel idea I suppose, for a traditionally half-court team that is finally starting to realize Reggie Miller has retired. I just don’t like this team’s starting lineup one bit, and operation “whiteys for blackys” last year didn’t help. Regardless if Al Harrington and Stephen Jackson were bad for team chemistry, Larry Bird still should have gotten some talent in return for them, since they are both, you know…talented. If the Pacers want to run, Tinsley needs to be the guy to initiate. He can intercept passes, which is a start, but he is a shaky point guard and he doesn’t have Steve Nash’s three-point shot to fall back on. Let’s go on to the Amare of this equation with Jermaine O’Neal. OK, not bad, but Jermaine is going to need to stay healthy and he hasn’t for a few years now. I guess that makes Danny Granger the Shawn Marion. Also promising, since he’s not too bad at filling out a stat sheet. He’ll need to fill it out more. Umm, I guess those white guys from the Warriors make up the rest of this equation. Yeah…maybe they should just go back to slow basketball. It’s worth considering.

So, does anyone in the NBA want to play for the Milwaukee Bucks this year? I mean the spectrum is as broad as it can get – you have one seven-foot Asian guy (who should be happy he now owns his own pair of shoes) not wanting to play in the Cheese State, along with an African American up-and-comer who came this close to packing his bags for Miami. (Sorry Charlie, I feel for you). In Yi Jianlian’s case, it’s going to be hard for a guy who can’t speak English to answer to critics on the court and in the locker room after all of this, and I’ll be shocked if he is productive this year. The Bucks are simply not an elite team regardless, and a lot of that may have to do with Andrew Bogut turning out to be J.A.T.W.D. (or, just another tall white dude). OK, I take that back. He can pass, shoot and board well, but he isn’t worth a first pick, and I’m pretty sure the Bucks rather have someone named Deron or Chris right now. The Bucks do have a nice point guard in Mo Williams and a deadly shooter in Michael Redd, but that is literally about it. This team is prime for the gutter.

Prediction: I really hate LeBron haters. I don’t know why they still exist. The guy just took his team to the finals in his third season, but can’t escape the microscope of criticism. Sure his ego doesn’t help, but it didn’t hurt MJ. And in my opinion, LeBron is the next MJ. He’s more capable of single-handedly winning a title than Kobe, and let’s remember, Dwyane Wade won his with Shaq, not single-handedly. However, if LeBron wants to become the next MJ, he’s going to have to start racking up division titles with ease, and two in a row is a good start.

Southeast Division-

After the team you root for, the next thing a sports fan should lock-in on in any given season is their franchise fantasy sports star, and how they make or break your year. In my case, for two years running now in basketball, that man has been Gilbert “Hibachi, Quality Shots” Arenas of the Washington Wizards. I’m kind of obsessed with the guy. I knew him since college because my brother went to Arizona, and always assumed he was the least likely to succeed. He now enters the 2007-08 season, contract time, coming off a monster outing last year, where he scored 50+ points three times, including a 60 point performance against Kobe. He is cocky as all hell, and even had a YouTube video that suggests he might be clinically insane. He also leads the second best scoring trio in the league after Boston’s yet to perform three, with Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison. Funny however, that while all three of them swipe more than a steal per game, the Wizards are horrible defensively. They are preaching to improve for this season, but Gilbert is still running the show. And he’s crazy. The Wizards will outscore you at will if all three are healthy, which didn’t work out to well by last season’s end. If they could stay intact this season, expect a division title, but not much else. This team is too much of a circus to compete for a title.

The Southeast was known for its hot starts and cold finishes last season, evident by the Wizards and also the Orlando Magic. Both teams were able to make the playoffs and both bowed out in the first round. It’s hard to believe that the Magic, still very incomplete, will drop off this coming season. If anything, the addition of a proven 20 ppg scorer in Rashard Lewis should improve the team’s chances, but not by that much. Lewis is one of the league’s best outside shooters, and he compliments his game by shooting a good percentage and collecting a decent amount of boards. I just don’t view him as a superstar, and everyone who disagreed with his mega-deal contract probably agrees with me. He is, for now, a good compliment to Dwight Howard’s post game. This is still the big guy’s team, as I think Howard has all the tools of a top post player in the NBA, including the horrible foul shooting. This should also be Jameer Nelson’s last chance to prove he can run the point. I think the team is lacking beyond its top three, and the inability to resign Darko Milicic may come back to haunt them. Regardless, I see them improving, and a 45+ win season seems realistic.

In my mind, this division holds the two best teams in the NBA as far as young talent is concerned – the only question being whether each has a shot at making the playoffs. First off it’s the Charlotte Bobcats, a team entering its fourth year now as a franchise. The plan has always been to build from the ground-up with the Bobcats, and avoid overpaying for aging veterans, in favor of stockpiling with young talent in the draft. The formula has proven to work well for the team, which despite not making the playoffs, has improved by at least seven wins in each of its last two seasons. The team is loaded with NCAA Final Four talent, and has now added its closest thing to a proven veteran, former Warriors guard Jason Richardson. That trade was at the expense of Brandan Wright, who I suppose the Bobcats would have kept if the Tarheels made the big dance this spring. The team also has the ultimate glue guy in Gerald Wallace, who if healthy, is an all-around force. I am equally impressed by Emeka Okafor as one of the league’s emerging big men. While the Bobcats will be without both Adam Morrison and Sean May this year, I think the losses are more of a gift than a curse, because it will allow the team to focus on a shorter rotation, still loaded with talent. In all honestly, I like this team’s steadiness, and despite its youth, I think the Bobcats will slip into the number eight seed this year, at the expense of a falling division mate.

The Atlanta Hawks are the second most talented young team in the league, but they haven’t shown the positive signs of growth that Charlotte has. This team is a fantasy basketball haven with Joe Johnson and Josh Smith, the problem is their loaded stat lines don’t translate into wins. Constantly bashed for taking forwards over a much needed point guard in previous drafts, the Hawks decided to continue the trend by drafting Al Horford third overall this spring. Lucky for Hawks fans, they also had the 11th pick and drafted Acie Law. I like him a lot. He’s a headstrong guy like Chauncey Billups, and needs to be given the keys to the jeep ASAP. I’m sorry, but I don’t see the need in giving Speedy Claxton or Tyronn Lue another chance. Law is a four year college veteran who led Texas A&M out of obscurity, and is the type of rookie willing for the challenge. Nonetheless, the Hawks still probably aren’t ready to make the leap. There problem is that they have a lot of talented forwards, and it isn’t certain who are the starters and who are the reserves yet, from a group that consists of Josh Smith (the most secure due to his breakout), Marvin Williams, Josh Childress, Shelden Williams and now Horford. That compiled wit Law’s growing pains will be enough to keep the Hawks out of the playoffs for at least this season.

There are three things you can count on in life. Death, taxes and Shaquille O’Neal providing hilarious material for any NBA column I write. This time around, it’s Shaq’s curious new preseason regiment. This past summer, Shaq practiced mixed martial arts everyday, according to Sports Illustrated. “UFC-style wrestling: fighting, punching in the face, choke holds,” Shaq told the mag. “I’m a big fan of the sport.” So that means, Shaq is more liable of getting fouled and putting Andrew Bogut in a rear-naked choke this season, than he is of salvaging whatever he has left of his lump of a body for another semi-productive season. I am speechless, yet I honestly can’t enough. Shaq’s twilight campaign in the NBA is reminiscent of the late Elvis years. They still had their glory (the Hawaii Concert, the Heat title) and they both ended up becoming fake cops. Unfortunately, Shaq is not Miami’s biggest concern. Dwayne Wade is nursing knee and shoulder injuries, and will miss at least the first month. When he gets back, and I have a feeling it may take longer, Wade will have to honestly contemplate changing his reckless style of play, which has now caught up to him. The problem is he is not a good long range shooter, and his game really relies on his aggressive drives to the basket. This could spell doom for Wade and the Heat, at least this season. The team is very weak beyond its no longer dynamic duo, and even traded for Ricky Davis to provide what should be some much needed scoring. All of this doesn’t bode very well, and because of it, mark my words…the Miami Heat will not make the playoffs. There’s my bold prediction for the preview. Mark my words!

Prediction: Yes, I wasn’t joking when I said the Heat will not make the playoffs. Shaq is pretty much done, and Wade is going to struggle all season I feel. And yes, I do believe the young Bobcats will snatch up their spot. As for tops in this division, the Wizards will probably win due to their high scoring attack, and the fact that Orlando clearly wont be able to keep up with them in that regard. Howard is a defensive beast, but the Wizards are a perimeter team. Nonetheless, I think this division is the weakest as far as world championship contenders are considered. If the Atlantic was last year’s Titanic, the ship has sunk down to the Southeast Division for the 2007 season.

What goes up…Must come crashing down

I woke up Sunday morning, a little bit after noonish, with what can only be described as a forgiving hangover, and the first thing that popped in my mind was...shit, I gotta update my fantasy squads. Looking back, my biggest regret of the day was not starting Plaxico Burress, (he's becoming a game-time decision annoyance) who ended up playing and scoring a tah-dow. Nonetheless, the benching didn't have any effect on the overall outcome of that match-up. I would have lost either way.

In other news, the Mets lost Sunday afternoon, 8-1, to the Florida Marlins and as a result, didn't make the playoffs. I was hurrying out of my apartment just around when Tom Glavine was warming up, and felt an uneasy degree of confidence that he would start the game on a good foot. Instead, he started the game on the worst foot possible. Imagine a foot with gangrene like in that anti-cigarette commercial, with athletes’ foot and boils, and the stench of death. That was Tom Glavine on Sunday.

After that horrific inning - when the Mets failed time and time again to rally (after Castro's shot fell short, it literally felt over) and the Phillies fastened their clasp of the division by laying it on the Nationals, the team that really took us out of post-season contention - me and my friends switched over to football. The topic of conversation for the day switched mostly to fantasy talk, as it quickly became apparent among us, the Mets collapse wasn't worth our time or empathy.

I'm still a die-hard Mets fan. The truth is, this Mets team didn't lose in heartbreaking fashion, despite all those crying faces in Shea on Sunday. If you really follow and love this team, the month of September should have frustrated the hell out of you, to the point that you didn't want to care anymore. Call me quitter, but last time I checked, I have no team to watch today or tomorrow on TBS. I think they quit first. When next year rolls around, the resentment I feel for the 2007 Mets will surely be a distant memory, well, distant enough.

Now there are plenty of question-marks as to what caused the "worst collapse in baseball history," - a term I've read in every baseball related article this week - but rather than trying to sort it out in paragraphs, I've decided to run down as many relevant Mets as possible, management and roster, to determine what their fate should be for the 2007 season (although Minaya has already decided one of those). I'm not going to speculate on who the Mets should bring in, management or roster, because it's too early for that. Let’s hold on that talk until the Winter Meetings. Until then, here is my “initial instinct” version of should they stay...or should they go…now.

Omar Minaya: Stay. But someone has definitely got their work cut out for them. Priority numero uno senor...shore up this bullpen. Look, I am the first to admit that relievers are often unpredictable, and sometimes, general managers just get lucky. Last year, however, Omar simply didn't make logical decisions in this department. I don't know the exact financial ramifications of keeping Darren Oliver and Chad Bradford, but something tells me it wouldn't have broken the bank. And signing a reliever with a career ERA close to five is just plain irrational. Scott Schoeneweis should never have sniffed a Mets uniform. This winter, Minaya needs to sign three guys with either upside, blazing speed, or proven track records (hey, why not one of each). They are always out there, he just needs to bully the market, and prove he is the great, persuasive GM we thought him once to be. Getting an ace or two will require trading players, and to make an appealing package, Minaya must loosen his grip on players whose names don't end in Wright or Reyes. And no, I am not leaving anyone out.

Willie Randolph: My opinion here is moot. Minaya has announced that Willie is coming back, and hopefully the pulse of the nation can now breathe easy. Seriously, what was with some baseball analysts who thought it was crude for Minaya to wait two days on Willie's fate? That isn't a long amount of time by any margin, and who is to say he should make the decision quickly anyway? Why should he rush on a decision so important, as in who is managing the team six months from now? In my opinion, Willie is not a capable in-game manager, proven several times this year if you actually watched Mets games. That means you Michael Kay, whose best defense of Willie is what a nice person he is. Wow, he's a nice guy? I am fucking sold. For a second there I thought his capability of managing a baseball team was important. I also think managing a baseball team is highly overrated, and Willie only needs to improve an a few key things to make him look smart next year. We can only hope he possesses the humility to learn from his mistakes.

Rick Peterson: Go. Pains me, really does, because I once viewed this guy as some sort of pitching genius…who just so happens to look like a lost Beach Boys member. But it’s hard to not equate the Mets downfall - almost solely caused by pitching - with the pitching coach himself. My guess is he got a little too comfortable, and when his prized pupil Sosa got demoted to the bullpen, things started to unravel. The Mets thought they had their fifth starter resolved kudos to Peterson, but apparently that wasn't the case. It didn't look good for him, and soon after, the foundation of his pitching staff collapsed from within. I don't know if Peterson is to blame for bullpen management, but he obviously did not have a remedy, or even a last resort solution for taking the slump of guys he had and at the very least, making them respectable. Then again, Peterson works his magic with a philosophy of pitch counts, so when your starters cant go the distance and your relievers innings go up, that theory will inflate worse than...inflation. Basically Peterson is not the guy you want when the going gets rough. He's more of a laid back guy who likes to think about the good vibrations, perhaps…head citations.

Howard Johnson: Stay. The Mets hit better with him at the helm. Especially Wright, who appears to have emulated Hojo's knack for hitting and running the bases will perfection. Was Johnson's impact evident in a guy like Jose Reyes though? I could only hope not. Makes me think that baseball should break down its batting coaches into categories, kind of like how the NFL has linebacker and defensive back coordinators, etc. The Mets could have a top of the order coach (1-2), heart of the order coach (3-5), and bottom of the order coach (6-8). A novel idea right? Nonetheless, we need someone to save our leadoff hitter from his power complex (not to mention lack of hustle. Reyes? really?) and right now, Hojo is that guy. Hopefully a full off-season will help the issue.

And now...the 2007 New York Mets! "Your time...to take hold of first place for 95 percent of the season, give fans the impression that you are still a world series contender, only to crash and burn by blowing the most prolific lead in September baseball history and giggle about it in the process...is now!"

Carlos Delgado: Go. Lets face it, this is the deepest position in major league baseball, and while Delgado's final power numbers were respectable (24 HR, 87 RBI), his percentages (.333 OBP, .448 slug.) told the real tale of his season. Delgado has not his consistently for his first two years now as a Met, as his bat speed and inability to hit out of the shift has made him hard to watch, through those long unproductive stretches. And the truth is, there is no reason to believe these problems will improve, they will most likely get worse. He’s a great guy, he’s just going to have to win Humanitarian award elsewhere. As for his replacement, the Mets should see if Carlos Pena is expendable. I honestly feel like they still owe us for Kazmir.

Luis Castillo: Stay. When I think about it, there isn’t a whole lot better the Mets can do next year at second base than a healthy Castillo. He does have a bulky knee, but when you compare his injury problems to other Mets, the severity is not quite as serious. I feel he will benefit from an off-season to get healthy, and then a full spring with the team, when he and Reyes will figure out whether or not they can become the 1-2 punch we desperately needed in September. If anything, Castillo held up to his part of the bargain a lot better than our shortstop. Castillo needs to add a little drive to his swing, because his inability to hit for extra bases as a Met is detrimental towards our team speed. We need to show our ability to score out of scoring position. Viable replacements include Tad Iguchi and Marcus Giles, the latter hitting something like .190 this year. I rather just spend our money elsewhere and keep Castillo.

Jose Reyes: Stay. Surprisingly, a number of other fans are suddenly having a different opinion. I wonder why. If you’re a Mets fan frustrated with how awful Jose played down the stretch, sure your saying trade him now, but I would love to see how you’d feel if such a move actually happened. It would be a little unsettling, and later regrettable, trust me. Reyes still finished the season batting .280, which while low, still proves how great he can be if focused. He was hitting well over .300 when he was zoned in, early in the season. It’s not unthinkable to believe he can have a great full season, because he did it one year ago. The problem is, everyone thought he needed to improve ten fold, with 25-30 homers, and close to 100 RBI. Reyes is an amazing lead-off guy, but he is not a power hitter, even a better-than-average one, and shouldn’t be encouraged to become one. I bet he saw Rollins and Hanley smacking them out of the park, looked at his paltry half-season total, and decided it was time to play catch-up. That would explain his penchant for pop-ups after the All-star break. He needs to understand that his primary goal in the offense it to get on base and score runs. When RBI opportunities come up, his approach should change, according to the status of the game. Ideally, Reyes should lead the majors in runs scored, stolen bases, and be up their in hits. That’s all I want out of him. He could hit single digit jacks, I could honestly care less.

David Wright: Stay. I’m not going to waste my keypads on this one (and several other guys who don’t errant debate for whatever reason), only to say that Wright is now clearly our best all-around player, and the leader of this team. He played with heart all year-long, and his solid production in every aspect of the game has pinned him as the guy to lead this bunch into glory. Problem is, in his first year as the supposed leader, the team had the, ahem, “worst collapse in MLB history.” Not the type of leader debut you’d like to make. I liken it to Gary Cherone’s debut with Van Halen, and the aptly titled album Van Halen III. Come to think of it, it’s nothing like that.

Moises Alou: Go. Unless he accepts a role off the bench, where it is established that three outfielders are ahead of him on the depth chart. Obviously, he has proven to be a ferocious contact hitter with decent pop when he’s healthy, but I don’t need to state the obvious to baseball fans – those instances have been few and far between in the past few years. We can’t roll the dice that Alou is going to have a bounce back season health-wise. I don’t like uncertainty in the outfield, it has plagued the Mets enough in the past, and we have plenty of young guys who deserve, or semi-deserve an opportunity to start. So unless Alou accepts a bench role, which would be nice, we can’t commit to him as a starter. The Mets really need to start investing in guys who play the majority of the season’s games, as blatant as that sounds.

Carlos Beltran: Stay. Beltran is the most intriguing player I will evaluate, and here is why. He obviously isn’t going anywhere via free agency, we have him locked up for four more years. So that means, do you trade the Mets biggest free agent signing ever, after two straight productive seasons. I honestly think no. There still seems to be a good amount of Beltran haters out there, and I feel many of these people are frustrated that his numbers are only comparable to guys in the league. Granted, his numbers are comparable to some really good players. Mets fans need to realize that Beltran isn’t A-Rod, never was, and never will be. He had one ridiculously hot October with Houston, and it’s as if people are waiting for him to compile that production through the course of one year. It’s not going to happen, especially not in Shea. What he is, is a consistent 30-100-100 plus guy with decent yet declining speed, and amazing range in centerfield. I’m sorry, but I’m not about to get rid of this guy for a package of prospects, if such a deal did arise. However, while I do like Beltran, I’m not in love with him. He isn’t a player I would hate to see go…if it meant improving the team overall. So, let’s say these Johan Santana for Beltran trade rumors becomes a reality. If we could pull something like that and then sign one of the two top centerfielders available, Torii Hunter or Andruw Jones, well, then…

Shawn Green: Go. Going to make this brief. While I would love to keep our only true chosen player on the team, the same applies to Green that applies to Alou. I don’t want him to start, obviously for different reasons than Alou, plus I feel his replacement is already on the team. Green doesn’t have the feel of a bench player, probably because his defense doesn’t make him an ideal double switch guy. I don’t know, for some reason Shawn Green on the 2008 Mets doesn’t sound like we had a productive off-season.

Paul LoDuca: Go. I really like the idea of getting power out of a position not usually associated with power, which translates into – Ramon Castro should start next year (we’ll get to him later). Obviously, this means LoDuca has to go, and it’s kind of a shame. LoDuca had a really inspirational first year for the Mets, when it seemed like he was our most reliable guy for a base hit. Not a homer, but just a little single, a base knock if you must. Now after a solid year at no. 2, he moved down the lineup for a number of lineup experimentations that never worked, and LoDuca never got a chance to return to the role he thrived in last year. This is one of Randolph’s most under-looked blunders, as I think it caused LoDuca to become one the team’s most disgruntled players. I also think he got a bad wrap, but it’s too late now. He’s become expendable in the business world of baseball.

Ruben Gotay: Stay. I like Gotay’s future on the team, and he’s currently a solid backup for Castillo at second. We had a log-jam of second basemen at the beginning of the year, yet Gotay still got the most out of his at-bats. When Castillo came along, his at-bats went down and so did his productivity it seemed. Still I like him a lot, and his defense isn’t as bad as people plague it to be. One note for Ruben, or should I say Hojo - scratch off switch-hitter from his resume. This guy is a lefty bat, and should focus on that side of the plate.

Marlon Anderson: Stay. Best pinch hitter in the game, plain and simple. No reason to expand that role and especially, no reason to get rid of him.

Jose Valentin/Damien Easley: Yeah I’ve combined two players (I’ll admit, I’m getting a little tired, but I have good reason). Honestly, flip a coin and pick one of these guys. I don’t think the Mets really need either, since I have Castillo and Gotay ranked ahead at second, but they are both solid veteran bats, and it’s always nice to have one of those guys hanging around for emergency situations, or in limited roles. I suppose Easley has the slight edge because he can play the outfield. However, I also like Valentin’s underrated defense. Uh, like I said – flip a coin.

Anderson Hernandez: Go. The guy is just a worthless bat, who is never needed off the bench. He’s backing up a guy who plays almost all of his games, and god forbid Reyes does get hurt, do we really want Hernandez as our starting shortstop?

Endy Chavez: Stay. Gotta love the string-bean, and that weird milk drink he promotes on bus stops. However, I don’t think Endy needs to start, but he is the perfect spot starter/fourth outfielder guy, who shines when given the opportunity, whether it is those few starting games or a pinch-hit drag bunt and steal in the ninth. If he did get the chance to start I would definitely be rooting for him, just don’t see it happening.

David Newhan: Go…pray in someone else’s dugout you weirdo. This guy was never a Met in my mind.

Lastings Milledge: Stay. Remember when I said Green’s replacement was already on the team? Obviously, I was talking about Lastings. The guy still hasn’t been given a chance to start every game, so let’s hold off on our expectations of him until such a chance is given. I know a lot of people want to package him in a trade for a pitcher and consider him a big piece, but the truth is Milledge’s trade value has gone down quite a bit in one year, and the team’s misuse of him is almost as much to blame as his attitude problem. For some reason though, me and my brother just like him, maybe because of his energy, newfound potential in the field, and his swagger at the plate. I could care less if he celebrates after every homerun or go-ahead score. God forbid our players show excitement when doing well. He’s not lewd or disrespectful in how he does it, so everyone needs to cooooooooool out! In my mother’s defense, he does spit a lot. He can definitely cut down on the spitting.

Carlos Gomez: Stay. Part three of the Citi Field outfield of the future. For some reason, if all goes right in my book, Gomez, Milledge and Beltran should be our starting outfield in 2009. If they can all play to their potential, and stay healthy out there, that is a very energetic, ground-covering outfield we got. I would only worry about them running into each other often on plays. As for his bat? I haven’t been impressed yet. Going to need to see more.

Ramon Castro: Stay. I’m not going to say I’m 100 percent confident that Castro will shine in this spot, because his arm still leaves nothing to be desired, and it’s uncertain how he will hold up during a full season of crouching. At the same time, I am still willing to give him a chance to become the Victor Martinez of the National League. I see a strong potential for 25-30 homeruns, which would be a solid power surge for the Mets that doesn’t require the signing of a new check. However, we need a reliable backup, one who preferably can call a good game, and maybe, for once on the Mets – throw runners out.

Mike DeFilice: Stay. Honestly, he’s not a bad third string catcher to resurrect from the minors if needed, but only that. Plus he’s got some spunk. Did you see him during the brawl? He was the rowdiest Met of all, and rightfully so, since a Defilice suspension wouldn’t exactly effect our postseason hopes (especially now obviously). Seriously, he looked like Michael Chiklis all going after a perp on a heated episode of “The Shield.”

Sandy Alomar: Go. The same cannot be said for this old fart. Did you ever see Old Yeller?

Tom Glavine: Go. I’d really hate to summarize a player’s career with one infamous start, but sorry Tommy, you’re that guy. You blew it for us in the biggest spot possible, and while it was the bullpen that really caused our downfall, you were the final nail in the coffin. You did give us some memorable performances, post-season included, but that all seems irrelevant now. If anything, his start is a wake-up call that we need younger pitching, and immediately, before our rotation needs to sign up for Mensa, or whatever it’s called.

Pedro Martinez: Stay. Uggh, I suppose. It’s hard to say goodbye to Pedro, and I probably would have had to if it wasn’t for his strong starts at the end of the year. But like his fellow senior citizens, If Pedro is back, he must be viewed at as a low-end player. That means the fifth starter on our team, and only that. If we go into the season with him at the top of our rotation, we are fooling ourselves.

Oliver Perez, John Maine: Stay. Another mash-up son! You cannot blame either of these guys for our downfall, even at their worst, because they did enough to get us into the playoffs. With starting pitchers, final numbers simply do not lie, and for Maine (15-10 3.9 era) and Perez (15-10 3.5 era) they had the lines that any team would accept to their rotation. The problem is, neither of them is an ace. And while I may sound greedy, neither of them make for a strong number 2. I would love for the Mets to be in the position where we can have these guys as our third and fourth starters, it would mean we have the best rotation in baseball, perhaps. Unfortunately, it’s unlikely we will get two guys to make such a bump possible. With one proven ace, and then another low-end rotation guy, who preferably can pitch deep into games, I am confident enough that either Maine or Perez can step into the spot and be our second best pitcher. Maine has proven to be more solid, but I still think Perez has the better stuff. Regardless, both of these guys should be back.

Jorge Sosa: Stay. The truth is, while it was a downer to see him leave the rotation, he became a solid middle reliever, for a month or so. I don't know, I associate Sosa with the Mets downfall, but don't blame him. It's an odd cause and effect. I just think he foreshadowed the impending doom of the Mets pitching, how the starters never carried them, and how the bullpen never saved them. Nonetheless, I don't see any reason in getting rid of a guy who showed promise in both pitching roles.

Brian Lawrence: Go. Shouldn’t exist as far as I’m concerned.

Mike Pelfrey, Phillip Humber: Go. Here is where I may lose some of you, unless of course, I already have. I honestly don’t know what is to be with either of these guys. Could they potentially become productive starters? I suppose. Are they in the same breath of guys like Lincecum and Hughes? No. Pelfrey honestly worries me more. He was inserted into the lineup this year at a time when the Mets were relatively cruising, in good shape atop the division, and he totally shit the bed. Towards the end of the year, he showed positive signs, but was inconsistent. As for Humber, his one major league start was awful, but it may not be enough to judge. I’m not too sure how much value these guys hold on their own, but together? Who knows, maybe someone out there is karmic enough to think that one mans gold is always the Mets garbage. If we somehow package these guys for an ace, whoever he is, I have to believe it’s worth it.

Billy Wagner: Stay. A tough one, but come on. The guy is still a dominant closer, who was overworked at the end of the year. I don’t know why Randolph brought him in for so many non-save situations, but I don’t know the reasons for a lot of what Willie did this year (wow, by going over every player on the team, I keep running into Willie problems. Then again, he’s such a nice guy). I do think that Wagner is shaky at times, and it does tend to happen in big spots. But he isn’t as prolific a choke artist as people have him pegged out to be. He doesn’t have that much playoff experience. People forget he was already in Philly when the Astros made it to the World Series. That year, it was Brad Lidge who blew it for them. Anyway, I feel like I may regret this one, but for now, the hick stays.

Pedro Feliciano: Stay. Another solid year for our “true” lefty specialist. I know he had some bad outings towards the end, but that’s when the Mets entire bullpen was in a free-fall. I’m convinced we had two really bad relievers (I’ll get to them in a minute), who infected the rest of the staff like a virus.

Scott Schoeneweis: Go! I needed some exclamation for that one. This was clearly Minaya’s worst signing, and even worse, we were stuck with him all year. Seriously, why can’t bad players get injured? Aside from that, I don’t understand why a team must keep such detrimental players, especially relievers, on a team just because we paid them money. This is how I see it. You’re paying this guy millions to help your team. If his pitching is negatively affecting your team, doesn’t it make sense to ship him to the minors so he has no chance of doing anymore detriment? Wouldn’t that be the best way to vindicate the signing? Get the most bang for your buck? And this just in…Schoeneweis allegedly took the juice. He even sucks when cheating. What a miserable loser.

Dave Williams: Stay. The guy still needs a chance in my book. In his limited work last year, he was as average as they come. I say, with the current state of the Mets pitching staff…let’s go average! I welcome his mediocrity!

Willie Collazo: Stay. Don’t know enough about this guy. I’ll be honest…I’m not sure who is who between him and Carlos Muniz. I know one pitched against the Nationals and got rocked, so I currently dislike both, but don’t know enough to assess either.

Carlos Muniz: See Collazo, Willie.

Aaron Sele: Go. Die.

Guillermo Mota: Go. Die Harder. The day I don’t see Willie go to Mota from the pen will be a happy one.

Joe Smith: Stay. OK, at first it looked like we had a younger Chad Bradford, and it was relieving, remember? Wasn’t it? Turns out, we were wrong, because Smith became very hittable, and now there is doubt if he is even ready for consistent work in the majors. Suffice to say, it’s a lot of pressure for a guy we plucked from the Single A Cyclones, so I’m not ready to give up on him just yet, and I still think his future is bright. He deserves another year in the bigs, if his spring is steady.

And finally…

Orlando Hernandez: I went and saved the best for last. Well, Wright is the best, but he wasn’t worth debate. As for El Duque, we really owe it to him. Meaning, if he wants to come back, we owe it to him to let him come back. Will he be effective again? Who knows. The twilight brilliance El Duque showed is similar to Glavine last year. It came after it looked like he was only on the decline, and was so magnificent it felt like it needed to be preserved in a bottle. It’s very possible that El Duque, who can be 50 years old for all we know, has nothing left in the tank. And it would be a shame. Call me strange, but I associate the most of my Mets grief this year with him, and none of it is his fault. Forget the fact that the Mets didn’t give him nearly enough run support, the most tragic El Duque memory I have is when the Mets were forced to bring him in from the bullpen in the final games of the season. There was something about that move that felt so desperate and out of place, even though I said he would have been a great reliever in the playoffs. Unfortunately, we’ll never know the answer to that.