(Note: These teams are not listed in the order I think they will finish this season, but rather on last year’s standings.)
The AL East
New York Yankees: Every off-season since 2000, the last time (gasp) the Yankees won the World Series, George Steinbrenner has made it Brian Cashman’s goal to sign the biggest free agent available. From Giambi, to Mussina, to A-Rod (not a free agent, but a huge catch), to Sheffield, to Matsui, to Pavano, to Johnson, to Damon…the list is endless. Actually, it’s not endless. It’s pretty much made up of those guys I just mentioned. The point is, all these acquisitions amounted into absolutely nothing, as far as world championships are concerned. The Yankees have transformed from a team with undeniable chemistry and heart, into a team that constantly has to hand over the reigns to their new star player. So this year, the Yankees decided to buck the trend of spending big bucks, and had their most quiet off-season in years. Sure they signed Pettitte, but he was no where near the biggest free agent signing off the winter. Sure they signed another Japanese prospect in Igawa, but they didn’t shell out the big chips for Dice-K.
So will it pay off? In my opinion, the reason the Yankees have been underachieving so much these past few years is because all the new players deterred any chance of the team creating and building on chemistry. So now, the core they preserved from last season is a year wiser, and a year closer together. Their lineup is unquestionably still the best in baseball. It has a nice blend of speed up top (Damon, Jeter, Abreu), and power in the middle (A-Rod, Giambi, Matsui). I don’t care what anyone says about his inability in the clutch, his fielding, his purple lips or his “I’m too sexy for my shirt” outings in Central Park; when it boils down to it, A-Rod is a great player.
It’s their pitching that has been the big question mark during these ring-less seasons, and while the acquisition of Pettitte will help, their fate will depend more on the rest of their rotation. I hesitate in calling Wang their ace, considering he had less strikeouts last season (76) than a top notch closer like Joe Nathan (95). I have little faith in Pavano returning to his “contract year” form this season, and doubt whether or not he was ever a top rotation starter. In my mind, The Yankees best pitcher is Mussina. He’s always solid, and rarely gets roughed up for more than four runs, an amount this lineup should surpass on any given day. A perfect case in point is Game 2 of the ALDS vs. the Tigers last season. He kept his team in the game, only down by one, but the offense couldn’t produce their next run until late in Game 4. That seems to be the only thing really holding this team back. As long as the lineup doesn’t choke in October again, this team should make the World Series.
I still hate them however, and wish them nothing but the worst for the 2007 season.
Toronto Blue Jays: Yes, they finished ahead of the Red Sox last season (by one game). It was a fairly successful year for the birds. They out-slugged almost every team in the league, and proved that B.J. Ryan was worth the loot. They also managed a pretty decent off-season, signing two pitchers (Tomo Ohka and John Thomson) for almost nothing, while adding another big bat to their lineup in Frank Thomas. Along with Wells, Glaus, Rios and Overbay, Toronto should be even more dangerous than last season, when Rios, who showed a lot of promise missed over 40 games (his middle name is Israel!) The only problem I have with their lineup is that it appears legitimately one-dimensional on paper; they got a lot of power, but lack average and speed. This is why a guy like Reed Johnson, their lesser-known lead-off hitter, will be so crucial in setting the table for the big guns that follow.
Pitching wise, the Blue Jays are one of few teams in the league that can say they have a true ace in Roy Halladay. He has been consistently great in the past few years, with only Santana of the Twins being a better all-around starter in that time frame. Number two starter A.J. Burnett did something shocking last season – he got injured and only pitced 21 starts. He seems to trade off healthy and non-healthy seasons through his career, so the Jays should take the opportunity to make something of it this year. I like Ohka and Thomson rounding out their rotation. They have both shown good signs in their careers, even though Thomson is a total tool box for saying he wouldn’t play with the Mets this off-season (As if we’d want him! We are sooo set with starting pitching). The question is, will all of this be enough for the Jays to make the required leap this year in the AL East, which has been a two-dog race for so long. Considering they finished second last year (first time a team other than Boston or New York did since 98), I’d say it’s very possible.
Victor Zambrano Alert: Well someone had to do it. The Jays are the poor schmucks who ended up with “the other Zambrano” for the 2007 season. As any Mets fan could attest, Victor Zambrano is the worst starting pitcher in the history of the league. Anytime he starts a game, you can only hope that he gives up four runs in 4.2 innings – and I’m dead serious. I don’t know how the Jays plan on using him, but I suggest they keep him in the bullpen and never put him into a single game. If he ever acts up and complains about not receiving any playing time, just throw a cup filled with empty sunflower seeds in his face and tell him to get his ass back on the pine.
Boston Red Sox: After getting the proverbial monkey off their back in 04 by winning the whole thing, the Sox have stumbled back to where they were prior to their miracle run, in the past two seasons. But the reasoning is understandable. They lost their heart and soul pitcher in Pedro Martinez and their heart and soul batter in Johnny Damon. They also traded a lot of prospects for proven veterans, last year with the Marlins (Lowell, Beckett) and this year with the signings of Lugo and Drew from the Dodgers. Their biggest catch of the off-season was Dice-K, who I’ve decided to never spell his name out, since he was given such a cool nickname. Nonetheless, the Red Sox have been making a lot of moves since their World Series season, but unlike the Yankees, the Sox have created little buzz with their list of transactions.
Their starting pitching could or could not be the best in the league this season. Curt Schilling has gone from a bloodied sock warrior to a fat guy who complains a lot (if he wants to be the next David Wells, he’s about 25 pounds and a goatee away). Beckett was awful last year, seeing his ERA inflate larger than his face upon entering the hard hitting AL East. To me, it’s going to take the penciled in three and four starters to make something happen for the Bo-Sox. Converted starter Jonathan Papelbon is a total tossup for me and anyone else who only knows him as a closer. Dice-K is the guy who can really turn things around. He has the potential of becoming a big fan favorite in Bean Town if he succeeds, and can wake up a team that fell apart horribly last season (I nearly forgot about their five-game sweep by the Yankees. Never has one regular season series done so much to crush a team’s post season hopes).
But the pitching forecast seems to overcast a much more prominent issue in Boston this season, and that is their aging and lacking of an identity lineup. While Ortiz is still a monster, his irregular heartbeat last year worries me about the toll the regular season takes on the big guy. He doesn’t seem like someone who conditions himself to well, and it’s inevitable that he’s going to hit a wall soon and miss some games. As for Manny, he too is an injury liability, and has the worst case of bipolarism I have ever seen. One day he’s demanding a trade, the next day he’s saying how much he loves Boston and would never leave. Riiiiiight. As much crap as he’s been getting, J.D. Drew could prove to be the key of Boston’ season, so the fans would be wise to embrace him at first. A career underachiever, if Drew can just lock in on that low porch in left (the pesky pole is just 302 feet from home), hopefully his production can inspire everyone else, and get that offense going again. If not, the Red Sox can easily fall towards the bottom of the division.
Baltimore Orioles: It gets harder and harder for teams to surpass the Yankees the further down they stand in the division, and the Orioles still look years away from doing so. For a team that used to contend in the division back in the mid-nineties, the O’s still have the notoriety of a team like the Cubs to sign big players and make noise in the off-season. But unfortunately for them, it hasn’t translated into a winning season, which hasn’t been had in Baltimore for nine years now. This team hasn’t had anything to be happy about since Cal Ripken broke the consecutive game streak, and that was over ten years ago. Yikes.
The good thing is Miguel Tejada, their premier signing over the past few years, has been very solid in Baltimore, and hit a career best .330 last season. The bad thing is his power has declined at the same time, down to 24 homers last year. When a team puts their shortstop in the cleanup spot, and gets that power production in a division filled with bombers, it doesn’t speak to highly of their chances to compete in the runs department (By the way, it pains me to write all of this considering I drafted Tejada over a slew of other sluggers in my recent fantasy league, including Ortiz). The rest of their lineup is very suspect. Brian Roberts is overrated, Melvin Mora appears to be on the decline, and recent signing Aubrey Huff isn’t exactly enough to bolster them to the next level (it surely didn’t work in Houston, a much friendlier hitters park).
So, as is common with every team trying to make the playoffs, starting pitching will tell the tale of the Orioles success. And like their bats, their arms too are suspect. I am a huge fan of Eric Bedard – uh…actually I barely know anything about him, I just know a lot of sports writers who use that description. In fact, there was a huge ruckus when he was taken in that recent fantasy draft, prompting my friend Kerner to say, “Why the fuck is everyone going crazy over Eric Bedard?” But despite how good he presumably is, their rotation is very bleak from 2-5. And to add to that, Kris Benson will miss the whole year, leading his wife to sleep with former Met Steve Trachsel, who was signed to replace the injured former Met. That pretty much sums up what I think of the Orioles in 2007.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays: The Rays have an awful stigma weighing on their shoulders that sooner or later needs to be shed, or they might as well fold into nothing and disappear from Major League Baseball. They are the only team to never be good, never have a winning season and never have any positive effect on the league in their nine losing seasons of existence. In that timeframe, the Diamonbacks, who came into the league the same year, have had five winning seasons and one World Series title. Another expansion team from the past fifteen years, the Marlins, has won two championships. Even the Rockies had a short-lived period of success in the mid nineties, making the playoffs in the Dante Bichette era.
So why were seven Devil Rays selected in my fantasy draft? Well that answer to that is rather simple – their awful records have translated into a lot of high draft picks. Going into this season, they have a healthy core of Rocco Baldelli, Delmon Young and Carl Crawford at the top of their lineup, all with speed and power. Throw in some other nice bats, and this team has a young, yet slightly experienced offense. They also have an ace up their sleeve in Scott Kazmir, who has the potential to be a top five starter in baseball. The problem is, like Baltimore, their rotation completely falls apart after the number one spot, and their bullpen isn’t the type you want to hand the ball over to early.
While this season is a wash, it could serve as a good opportunity for the Rays to do something they have never done in their nine years - finish third in the division. As pathetic of an accomplishment as that sounds (and it basically is), it will be a positive step forward for a team that is still missing crucial pieces to their success. What they can really use are a few experienced veterans to round out their rotation. Guys like Jon Lieber, currently ranked 6th on the Phillies depth chart, would help their situation. If they can do that, while finding a closer, I am pretty confident this offense can scrap together enough runs to compete one day. It’s still early Tampa fans, but the quest for third is a reality in 2007!
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